Fractured alliance helps NDA

The National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is working so quietly in Bihar, it is almost impossible to spot it.

Its leaders are not staying at the upmarket and smart Maurya Hotel in the state capital "" they are all ensconced in the ITDC-run Patliputra Ashok.

The only grand thing about the hotel is its name. Otherwise, the flushes do not work, the rooms have mosquitoes and yesterday an accident was averted when the legs of a bed broke, nearly breaking a guest's foot. It is the ITDC in Bihar.

But it is from here that the NDA's campaign strategy for Bihar is being worked. Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) chief LK Advani's recent visit to Kishanganj, that has a 65 per cent Muslim population, is a case in point.

Advani did not mention Hindutva, spoke about reviving the Bihari pride and about what Bihar had become under Lalu Prasad.

Even then, criticism of Lalu was muted. The idea was not to criticise the Bihar government but offer an alternative that is inclusive "" both in terms of religion and caste.

Given that 2,500 candidates sought tickets from the Rash-triya Janata Dal (RJD) when nominations opened for the 243-member Assembly, it is safe to say at least 2,250 discontented political leaders, who did not get the nomination, will be working against the RJD.

Add to this the fact that the panchayat elections were held in 2000. In the absence of a real devolution of power to the panchayats ""unlike Karnataka or Maharashtra""the panchayat leaders who were duped into believing they had been empowered, are realising that to be counted as something, you really need to be an MLA.

In some places, these facts are conspiring to give Lalu the balance of advantage.

In most others, they are a handicap, like the imperfect United Progressive Alliance (UPA), which has aggravated Lalu's political headache.

It is too early to figure out how this could impact the Assembly elections. But everyone is united in predicting Lalu's tally might come down.

Saibal Gupta of the Asian Development Research Institute is the only one radical enough to anticipate that Lalu might not get to form the government, denying Rabri Devi a place in the Guinness Book of World Records.

Gupta's calculation is simple. The NDA has a perfect alliance ""the Janata Dal (U) or the BJP rebels are few. By contrast, fractures in the UPA's base are visible.

Not only are the Congress and the Ramvilas Paswan-led Lok Janashakti Party (LJP) contesting independent of each other, together they have a pact with each other.

Lalu is al's facing opposition from the backward caste Muslims. There are more rebels standing against the RJD candidates than any other party. And there is a simple matter of anti-incumbency.

The UPA got 44 per cent of the votes in the Lok Sabha elections. This time the Congress and the LJP alike are likely to tear away about 10 per cent of this.

A 2 per cent swing of Muslims away from the RJD, damage by the rebels to the extent of 2-5 per cent and 1 per cent movement away from the RJD on account of anti-incumbency will bring down the UPA's vote by nearly 14 per cent.

Any one who gets 30 per cent of the vote will be able to form a government, Gupta says.

If that happens, Lalu's overall standing in the UPA comes down""which is just fine by the Congress""and his presence in Bihar is severely curtailed.

Does this mean the NDA could come to power in Bihar? Gupta is not prepared to go that far. But he says this scenario is entirely within the bounds of possibility.

Meanwhile, Advani today said JD(U) leader Nitish Kumar should be the chief minister in the event of the NDA coming to power in Bihar.