Geneva Climate Change talks: Drafting a text for the Paris climate deal

One-week talks to start next week

In Lima, last year-end, more than 190 countries drew together a conflict-riddled wish list of what they desired the 2015 Paris climate change agreement to be. Starting February 8, negotiators from these countries will sit again for a week with this contentious wish list to produce the first draft negotiating text of the 2015 global climate change agreement. The agreement has to be agreed upon by consensus by the end of the year in Paris.

At the same time, domestically many countries, including India, are also busy preparing the targets they shall offer to fight climate change under the Paris agreement.

The wish list in climate negotiations jargon is called the "Elements For A Draft Negotiating Text". It is a 38-page document riddled with completely contradictory options put forth by different countries for every issue that needs to be resolved by consensus. The co-chairs of the negotiations, one from the US and another from Algeria, have suggested that in a week's time this should be turned into a small document with fewer areas of conflict and contradictions between countries. Most observers and negotiators believe there is as good a likelihood that the document could actually balloon into a much longer one before it really gets summarised over several rounds of negotiations that are now planned through the year, ending with the Paris talks.

For each issue there are several options on the table at the moment and the countries had decided at Lima that if any country desired they could put more up when talks restarted in 2015.

At Lima last year the countries were only to decide the kind of information and targets (Intended Nationally Determined Targets) they should provide under the Paris agreement in 2015. But developed countries tried to get the meat of the Paris agreement itself stitched a year ahead of time through the backdoor. There was a pushback from developing world, marking a rare sign of unity overcoming frail relationships that bind the G77+China block of countries. But that meant the end result of Lima was nothing but status quo. Eventually, 2015 became the year that everything would be worked out.

To start with, the preamble to the agreement itself remains unclear, which suggests fundamental differences among countries. Is the new agreement in full or in parts going to follow the principles and the provisions of the existing UN convention? What is the common goal that the agreement must desire to achieve? Is it keeping the global temperature rise below 2 degree Celsius by the end of the century or is it keeping the global temperature rise below 2 degree Celsius while respecting historical responsibilities, the principle of equity and the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities.

Negotiators will indulge for a week arguing over each turn of phrase and sentence or an introduced paragraph or placement of comma and semicolon. A frustrating scene for anyone observing the process from outside. But each word, phrase and comma holds the possibility of shifting the burden of climate change action from the shoulders of one set of countries to the other.

Behind the veil of the climate change negotiating terminology and jargon sit deep economic interests - many short term and some spreading over decades if climate change is not addressed adequately.

For India, the US-India bilateral disagreement on climate change is bound to be a lesson on how difficult the year ahead would be. The low ambition the US, China and the EU have shown while indicating their emission reduction targets under the Paris agreement lets India off the hook at one level - there is no climate leader in the short run now. But at another, India will require to safeguard its long-term interests and ensure the 2015 agreement does not foreclose its options to grow economically in the long run and not be burdened with more than its equitous share while fighting climate change.

At Geneva, India will have to ensure that its options do not fall off the table even if differing views continue to sit in the draft negotiating text. The negotiating game will only become tougher with each iterant round through the year until the last one at Paris. India will continue to coordinate closely with other countries in the Like-Minded Developing Countries group, which includes China, and take common positions within the BASIC group as well, which also includes South Africa and Brazil besides China.

KEY ISSUES FOR INDIA AT GENEVA TALKS

1) How does the long-term goal of reducing emissions find reflection in the draft - does it acknowledge as one option the existing principles of the UN climate convention?

2) Can India keep the sequence of processes to be undertaken to reach a full operational Paris agreement to its advantage, namely?

• The placing of country-specific emission reduction targets
• A review of the emission reduction targets
• A review of the financial and technological support commitments
• The legal binding of the agreement - how enforceable the agreement and the targets are internationally

3) Can it keep the debate about the enhancement of pre-2020 commitments of the developed world alive?

4) Can it continue to find common ground with other developing countries that are outside the Like-Minded Developing Countries group?