The ministry thinks that petroleum demand may exceed the earlier estimates of 120.4 million tonnes in 2006-07 by at least 4 per cent. This will imply that the demand in the terminal year of the Tenth Plan will be around 125.2 million tonnes.
During the Ninth Plan, a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.9 per cent in the consumption of petroleum products' was achieved. Higher growths were registered for products like liquefied petroleum gas (12.6 per cent), petrol (7.2 per cent) and naphtha (20.1 per cent).
During the same period, diesel consumption rose 0.9 per cent, kerosene 0.5 per cent, aviation turbine fuel 1 per cent, fuel oil 2.4 per cent, bitumen 2.6 per cent, light diesel oil 5.4 per cent, lubes 2.3 per cent and others, including propylene, solvents, reformate, mineral turpentine oil, carbon black feed stock, raw and calcined petroleum coke, waxes and sulphur, registered a growth of 27.7 per cent.
The ministry had earlier projected that the demand for petroleum products would grow at a compounded annual growth rate of 3.7 per cent during the Tenth Plan. Accordingly, the demand at the end of the Tenth Plan was projected at 120.4 million tonnes.
These estimates were made at a time when the growth in demand had slowed during 2001-02. The ministry revised its estimates when the demand increased by 3.2 per cent from 100.4 million tonnes in 2001-02 to 103.6 million tonnes in 2002-03, "indicating an upward swing in the economy."
