Govt sees higher growth in exports

India's exports, which registered a 17.26 per cent growth in dollar terms in 2003-04, are expected to expand further in 2004, if the present growth trend of the world economy is sustained, according to an annual report of the commerce and industry ministry for 2003-04. "Trade is expected to expand further in 2004, should the global economy continue to improve," the report said.

The report notes that the 17.26 per cent increase in India's exports of $ 61.84 billion against a target of 12 per cent during the year 2003-04 came despite the rupee appreciating consistently against the US dollar since May 2003.

India's imports during the fiscal 2003-04 registered a growth of 24.96 per cent at $75.20 billion, while the trade deficit was higher at $ 13.3 billion compared with $ 7.4 billion in April-March 2002-03.

"Trade performance was influenced by a number of factors, which included productivity changes in the manufacturing sector, recovery of global economy and world trade, continued trade promotion and trade facilitation efforts of the government and an appreciating Indian rupee against the dollar," the report said.

While the manufacturing sector activity recorded a significant growth during the year, exceeding 7 per cent in the quarter ending December 2003, the report notes that the trade recovery is initially limited by a combination of unusual temporary factors""the outbreak of SARS and tensions in the West Asia, combined with the sluggish GDP growth in Western Europe (the world's largest regional trader).

However, with the expansion of the global output and trade, the second half of 2003 witnessed a recovery and trade in goods strongly rebounded in the second half of the year, particularly in the United States and East Asia.

According to the disaggregate data available for the period April-December 2003, the commodities and the commodity groups, which registered a significant increase in exports over the corresponding period of the previous year, included transport equipment (49 per cent), petroleum products (47 per cent), iron and steel (39 per cent), machinery (36 per cent), electronic goods (33 per cent) and man-made textile made-ups (23 per cent).

During the first nine months of the fiscal 2003-04, Asia and Oceania region comprising South Asian, East Asian, Mid-eastern and the Gulf countries accounted for nearly 45.72 per cent of India's total exports, followed by the west Europe and America at 27.71 per cent and 21.9 per cent, respectively.

As far as individual countries are concerned , the US with a share of 18.75 per cent of our exports, remained the most important export destination during April-December 2003-04 followed by the United Arab Emirates (7.46 per cent), Hong Kong (5.43 per cent), the UK (4.81 per cent) and Germany (3.92 per cent).