 "Govt likely to begin quarterly job surveys from June-July")
The ministry of statistics and programme implementation (Mospi) is in the process of launching a new survey — likely to be launched in June-July — to provide quarterly employment estimates.
Labour market data are a key economic indicator that serves as a guide for monetary and fiscal policy. In India these are collected with a considerable time lag, unlike monthly compilation of figures in developed countries. This makes it difficult to assess the impact of a changing macro economic environment.
At present, the most widely used data on employment and unemployment come from the National Sample Survey (NSS). But these are carried out every five years and results usually come with a lag.
The latest such, the 68th round, was carried out for the 2011-12 period. The labour bureau, too, brings annual reports on employment and unemployment but its results do not match up with NSS data. For example, NSS data for 2011-12 showed unemployment in India was 2.7 per cent, lower than the labour bureau estimate of 3.8 per cent that year.
This not only raises a question mark on reliability but, given that both reports come with a lag, highlights the difficulty in understanding the employment situation during periods of macro economic uncertainty. Jawaharlal Nehru University professor, Santosh Mehrotra, says: “When data do not come frequently, you cannot gauge macro policies’ impact on employment.” Other reports from the labour bureau, such as the quarterly report on changes in employment, are limited to select sectors.
For long, the want of reliable and timely data has been the Achilles Heel for India in making . In the absence of data, policymakers rely on proxies and intuition .
Contrast this with developed countries like the US, which comes out with monthly estimates of employment that the Federal Reserve relies upon for calibrating its monetary policy stance. Labour markets are a key indicator of the underlying strength or weakness of an economy and provide policymakers vital inputs on the degree of intervention the economy needs.
According to Pronab Sen, chairman of the National Statistical Commission and former chief statistician of India, the problem of lack of frequent and reliable employment data in India is related to the structure of the labour market in the country. In developed nations like the US, monthly information on employment are based on payroll data.
The monthly frequency is possible to maintain these because an overwhelming section of the labour force, roughly 90 per cent, is engaged in the organised sector. That makes collecting data easier.
By comparison, 90 per cent of India’s labour force is employed in the unorganised sector, information on which is difficult to collate. So, gathering information on the organised sector employment alone will lead to an incomplete picture of the labour market, and lead to wrong policy choices.
Well functioning employment exchanges could be another valuable data source. In 2012-13, the total number of applicants registered with these exchanges in India stood at 44.8 million. But in addition to issues of data reliability, Chief Statistician of India T C A Anant points out, employment exchanges are principally for organised employment and capture only the part of the labour force that is eligible and seeking employment — at best only 10 per cent of the work force.
Conducting these, though, is an expensive and time-consuming proposition.
Mospi’s plan to launch a new survey for quarterly employment estimates might be a recognition of the need for regular data flows. To test its ability to be able to conduct such large-scale surveys on a quarterly basis, the ministry has carried out pilot surveys in Odisha, Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh. Anant, satisfied with the results, is optimistic about a pan-Indian launch of such surveys soon.
Initially, the surveys will provide annual estimates in rural areas and quarterly estimates in urban areas. But unlike NSS surveys, which indicate actual levels of employment, the Mospi surveys will provide change estimates. Further, given the huge cost associated with such surveys and the time involved in carrying those out, the quarterly surveys will only gather information on a limited set of indicators.
Labour market data are a key economic indicator that serves as a guide for monetary and fiscal policy. In India these are collected with a considerable time lag, unlike monthly compilation of figures in developed countries. This makes it difficult to assess the impact of a changing macro economic environment.
At present, the most widely used data on employment and unemployment come from the National Sample Survey (NSS). But these are carried out every five years and results usually come with a lag.
The latest such, the 68th round, was carried out for the 2011-12 period. The labour bureau, too, brings annual reports on employment and unemployment but its results do not match up with NSS data. For example, NSS data for 2011-12 showed unemployment in India was 2.7 per cent, lower than the labour bureau estimate of 3.8 per cent that year.
This not only raises a question mark on reliability but, given that both reports come with a lag, highlights the difficulty in understanding the employment situation during periods of macro economic uncertainty. Jawaharlal Nehru University professor, Santosh Mehrotra, says: “When data do not come frequently, you cannot gauge macro policies’ impact on employment.” Other reports from the labour bureau, such as the quarterly report on changes in employment, are limited to select sectors.
For long, the want of reliable and timely data has been the Achilles Heel for India in making . In the absence of data, policymakers rely on proxies and intuition .
Contrast this with developed countries like the US, which comes out with monthly estimates of employment that the Federal Reserve relies upon for calibrating its monetary policy stance. Labour markets are a key indicator of the underlying strength or weakness of an economy and provide policymakers vital inputs on the degree of intervention the economy needs.
IN THE US, SOURCES PROVIDE REGULAR ESTIMATES OF EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT
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According to Pronab Sen, chairman of the National Statistical Commission and former chief statistician of India, the problem of lack of frequent and reliable employment data in India is related to the structure of the labour market in the country. In developed nations like the US, monthly information on employment are based on payroll data.
The monthly frequency is possible to maintain these because an overwhelming section of the labour force, roughly 90 per cent, is engaged in the organised sector. That makes collecting data easier.
By comparison, 90 per cent of India’s labour force is employed in the unorganised sector, information on which is difficult to collate. So, gathering information on the organised sector employment alone will lead to an incomplete picture of the labour market, and lead to wrong policy choices.
Well functioning employment exchanges could be another valuable data source. In 2012-13, the total number of applicants registered with these exchanges in India stood at 44.8 million. But in addition to issues of data reliability, Chief Statistician of India T C A Anant points out, employment exchanges are principally for organised employment and capture only the part of the labour force that is eligible and seeking employment — at best only 10 per cent of the work force.
Conducting these, though, is an expensive and time-consuming proposition.
Mospi’s plan to launch a new survey for quarterly employment estimates might be a recognition of the need for regular data flows. To test its ability to be able to conduct such large-scale surveys on a quarterly basis, the ministry has carried out pilot surveys in Odisha, Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh. Anant, satisfied with the results, is optimistic about a pan-Indian launch of such surveys soon.
Initially, the surveys will provide annual estimates in rural areas and quarterly estimates in urban areas. But unlike NSS surveys, which indicate actual levels of employment, the Mospi surveys will provide change estimates. Further, given the huge cost associated with such surveys and the time involved in carrying those out, the quarterly surveys will only gather information on a limited set of indicators.