Will the group rivalry in the Congress spoil the United Democratic Front (UDF)'s chances in the next assembly polls in Kerala? It appears almost certain, going by the recent local body elections. The election to the presidentship of the state unit of the Youth Congress will be the latest litmus test in the party. The Congress A group led by the opposition leader Oommen Chandy has fielded PC Vishnunath, former president of the Kerala Students Union (KSU) as its candidate to the post and the I group's nominee is M Liju, former president of Youth Congress.
Though the election is in the Youth Congress, prominent groups in the party and its leaders are campaigning for their candidate secretly through group meetings. It is interesting that there is already a ban on such group meetings in Kerala, but this is going on smoothly everywhere.
Electioneering is active in the polling booth and mandalam levels which beigns from November 30 and ends on December 4. The fight for the state presidentship is expected to be eventful as this is a prestigious issue for A and I groups.
The local body elections have created an open war between the two major groups in the party and there were clashes between the party workers in many places. Apart from A and I groups, there are several active groups in the party like K Karunakaran group, led by his daughter Padmaja Venugopal, Vayalar Ravi group and a fourth group.
The groups do not have a clear and steady stand on various issues, but move according to the need of the situation. For example, the Karunakaran faction which vehemently opposed the A group in the past now decided to support A group's nominee in the election to the post of Youth Congress president.
This groupism had spoiled a much bigger win of the front in local body elections as a number of UDF candidates lost their fight by narrow margins due to group tactics. The group rivalry has been at its culmination in the election to the mayorship of Kochi corporation. Quite unexpectedly Tony Chammany, a junior leader in the party, has been elected as the mayor, defeating N Venugopal, KPCC general secretary and a senior leader of the I group. It was Venugopal who led the campaign in the elections to the city corporation, and the Congress too had highlighted him for the post of mayor.
But through a tactical move orchestrated by the A group and a section of the I group under KV Thomas, union minister of state for agriculture and local MP, Venugopal was defeated in the parliamentary party meeting. An I group meeting in last week vehemently criticised this move, with Joseph Vazhakkan, a KPCC general secretary, saying that A group acted like Brutus.
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In retaliation the I group fielded Eldose Kunnappally, a youth congress leader for the post of president of the district panchayat of Ernakulam. The defeat of N Venugopal has suddenly fuelled the group rivalry which is likely to have serious repercussions in the next assembly polls.
The group issue had also created problem in the election to the mayorship in Thrissur where Congress has a brutal majority. Here the two major groups have settled to share the post for 30 months each. The group issues in several Panchayats and municipalities have undermined the boost from the big win in the polls.
AK Antony, Union defence minister who actively led the A group, recently said that if the Congress works unitedly in the assembly polls UDF would have a very comfortable majority in the assembly. Otherwise the groupism will spoil its prospects.
He indicated that the group issues were beyond the control of the party's state leadership. The Left Democratic Front (LDF) now pins its hopes on the group rivalry in the Congress and other internal issues of the UDF.
Because of the certain victory in the assembly polls, on an average, four leaders of the Congress are contesting for party tickets in each assembly seat. The KPCC leadership has to allocate its 75 odd seats between the various groups in the party, apart from balancing the communal equations which is very crucial in the state. The strength of each group is so critical in the polls as the margin in more than 50 per cent of the 140 assembly constituencies is between 3,000 and 5,000. So the number of workers in each group is critical to a win or loss.
A section of the Congress leaders secretly said that they were afraid of defeating leaders who have a chance to get a berth in the cabinet. It is likely that there would be a planned move inside the Congress party to defeat its own candidates this time.
This development also irks the leadership of other parties like the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) and Kerala Congress in the UDF. Three leaders Oommen Chandy, Vayalar Ravi and Maharashtra governor K Sankara Narayanan are hoping for the chief ministership of the state. If the front loses 10-15 seats in this manner this will lead to a turning point in Kerala. So the Congress groupism is a crucial factor in the Kerala assembly polls next time, though UDF has the big chance for a big win.