GST, stronger rupee may result in flat Indian apparel exports growth: AEPC

India has reported a marginal five per cent growth in apparel exports worth $6.9 billion for 5%

Indian apparel exports growth may remain flat or at the most see a marginal rise this year, due to factors like the goods and services tax (GST) implementation, rupee appreciation against the dollar and sluggish global demand.
 
Industry representatives have hazarded single-digit growth in apparel exports due to disruption in the textile value chain along with rise in raw material costs.
 
According to Rahul Mehta, president of the Clothing Manufacturers' Association India (CMAI), the rise in minimum wages and rupee appreciation have resulted in estimates of sluggish growth in apparel exports.
 
The rupee has risen to 64.2 against the dollar from 66.5 last August. This is in contrast to six consecutive years of depreciation. India had posted $17 billion worth of apparel exports in 2016-17.
 
According to an official at the Apparel Exports Promotion Council (AEPC), India reported a marginal 5 per cent growth in apparel exports worth $6.9 billion for the period April-July 2017.
 
"We had earlier anticipated 15 per cent growth in apparel exports. However, things appear sluggish now.  Apart from the GST implementation and rupee appreciation, what has also been affecting the industry is the rise in raw material prices and labour wages," said Mehta.
 
Further, the global apparel trade has also shown no signs of reviving, resulting in subdued demand in key importing countries. This may result in India’s apparel exports continuing to remain volatile, says a report by ICRA.
 
"Although we have witnessed brief phases of growth in the past 18 months, the trend has been unsustainable and has failed to instil confidence. In such a scenario, sustained growth in India’s apparel exports remains challenging. The challenges have been further augmented by the appreciation of the rupee in recent months, which has reduced competitiveness of Indian exporters vis-a-vis global counterparts," said Jayanta Roy, senior vice-president and group head, corporate sector ratings, ICRA.
 
According to the report, the apparel and fabric industry has been facing headwinds as a result of temporary disruptions caused by demonetisation and the transition to the GST regime. The impact of these developments has been more pronounced on the highly fragmented fabric segment, with fabric production declining by 1 per cent in the first quarter of 2017-18 following flat production in 2015-16 and a 2 per cent decline in 2016-17.
 
Despite significantly higher raw material prices, the revenues of fabric manufacturers in ICRA’s sample grew by a modest 4 per cent in the first quarter of 2017-18 pointing towards a steeper de-growth in sales volumes vis-a-vis production volumes.
 
"De-growth in fabric sales volumes in the first quarter was higher than the aggregate nation-wide production de-growth of 1 per cent due to the clearance of channel inventory by intermediaries prior to the GST implementation," Roy added.
 
As a result, ICRA noted that although the profitability of export-oriented players had been protected to an extent by prudent hedging practices, sustained strength of the rupee might exert pressure on their pricing ability and hence demand and profitability.
 
"Notwithstanding the likely pressures on profitability, debt levels are expected to decline with the industry focusing on sweating the existing assets more and undertaking limited debt-funded capacity additions. As a result, ICRA expects the financial risk profiles of Indian exporters as well as domestic-focused apparel/fabric manufacturers to remain steady in the near term," the report further stated.