Gujarat election outcome may decide fate of N-deal

The Indo-US civil nuclear deal has a new deadline ""December 23. Counting of votes for the Gujarat Assembly elections is likely to be completed by the evening of that day, making it clear whether the secular alternative has managed any political traction in a state where the Congress is leaving no stone unturned to make an impact.

Top sources in the Congress say that it is a measure of the Congress' fighting spirit that it is even considering naming a chief ministerial candidate who will be an alternative to Narendra Modi. The name currently doing the rounds is Lok Sabha member Dinsha Patel. A big section of the Congress is also advocating a tie-up with rebel BJP MLAs.

The task is not easy. Out of power for 12 years in Gujarat, the Congress needs to do well in some key regions, especially Saurashtra and the tribal belt. An analysis of the 2002 results, in which the BJP secured 127 seats to the Congress' 51, shows that the latter needs to add at least 42 seats to win a simple majority in the 182-member legislature.

As much as the party needs a victory in Gujarat to boost its domestic image, it is the Indo-US civil nuclear deal which is also weighing on the minds of party managers.

With a respectable showing in the Gujarat election, a large section of the Congress is of the view that it can then dictate a schedule for a mid-term election and retain the initiative in terms of the issues to be raised in the election. The theme of communalism versus secularism can then be played up to the hilt.

Interestingly, this is in line with the prescription of veteran Communist leader Jyoti Basu on the ties between the UPA and Left. Basu has reportedly told his colleagues and Congress leaders that tension between the two sides should be reduced before Gujarat elections. Otherwise, it is the BJP, the common opponent of the two sides, that might benefit from the "instability factor".

Basu recently held a closed-door meeting with External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherjee. West Bengal Chief Minister Buddhadeb Bhattacharya and Left Front Chairman Biman Bose were also present.

There again, Basu emphasised that Gujarat elections were crucial and both sides should do nothing to bolster "communal forces". A large section of the party believes the UPA should go to the voters on positive issues: like the populist work done by the government. Top Congress leaders are privately saying that the deal is not dead.

The US administration has been informed that it would not be possible for the UPA to give up the government for the sake of the nuclear deal, now. Time has been sought from the US to solve "domestic difficulties" in the way of operationalising the Indo-US civil nuclear agreement; and the new deadline appears to be Sunday, December 23.