The Congress will be launching an agitation in Surat on August 9. "This will be just a step towards ousting the BJP from Gujarat," declares new state party president Shankersinh Vaghela. "We are ready for the Assembly polls, whether in October as being discussed or in March, 2003 as per schedule."
The agitation is yet another signal of the fact that campaigning for the Assembly elections has unofficially started in earnest in Gujarat, though election dates have yet to be announced. Last week, Vaghela addressed a huge crowd at Deesha in Banaskantha district.
The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), too, has kicked off its campaign, even if symbolically. On August 4, Deputy Prime Minister LK Advani, with former chief minister Narendra Modi, flagged off two trains from Ahmedabad.
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Indeed, both BJP and Congress leaders are reorganising their parties, tapping major companies in the state for money (the BJP, however, is at a disadvantage here because Modi is not viewed as industry friendly), going back to the people and attending party offices regularly.
BJP ministers who are popular among people of their area, like state health minister Ashok Bhatt or revenue minister Haren Pandya, have started interacting with the people in their constituencies and are attending meetings even on local issues. Though BJP leaders decline to talk about the focus of the party's campaign, it is learnt that they will project the pro-Hindu image of Narendra Modi and his government.
On the Congress side, Vaghela has started attending the Gujarat Pradesh Congress Committee (GPCC) office on Ashram Road. The Congress planks will be a riot-free Gujarat and the BJP misrule in the state. The party will also be underlining Vaghela's pro-Dalit image.
Vaghela is also trying to end the factional feuds in the party. He is conducting regular meetings with leaders like Amarsinh Choudhury, former GPCC president and now the leader of the Opposition; Narhari Amin, an MLA from Sabarmati, and even with Naresh Rawal, who was replaced by Choudhury. "I always keep in touch with people, not only from the Saurashtra region but from across the state," Vaghela says. A number of mid-level and lower-level BJP leaders from around the state too have been visiting Vaghela's bungalow in Gandhinagar.
BJP leaders, on the other hand, are also exuding confidence. "It does not matter whether the elections are held tomorrow or after six months -- we are coming back and with more support," a former state Cabinet minister said. "The Congress should stop day dreaming. People have seen its performance when it was in power during the time of Madhavsinh Solanki. The state had faced a major communal riot during his regime," Ashok Bhatt, who was a member of the Modi Cabinet, added.
Certainly, the BJP enjoys several advantages. It will get the support of the Vishwa Hindu Parishad and the Bajrang Dal. The party has an edge over the Congress in the state, thanks to it having played the Hindutva card. "Modi may have hurt the minority community, but he has won the hearts of the majority," says Indubhai Mehta, an educationist.
Besides, the BJP also has an excellent grassroot set-up. "It is like the Communist parties, which always remain cadre-centric," notes political observer Dwarikanath Rath.
Still, the BJP is divided in the state. Former chief minister Keshubhai Patel, now a Rajya Sabha MP, is reportedly not happy with Modi. State BJP president Rajendrasinh Rana is unhappy because he is not consulted by Modi.
The minority community vote in the state will in all probability go to the Congress. "Nearly 13,000 people are still in relief camps across Ahmedabad. If they get a chance to cast their vote, they will vote against Modi and his men," says Rath. But the minority community accounts for only about 30 per cent of the state's population.
The Congress is hoping to bag the Dalit vote too. That will help -- but it may not prove decisive enough.