Haze hangs over Karnataka CM race

MANDATE 2004/ BJP hamstrung by dissension, Congress may have to accommodate partner

With just 48 hours left for polling for both Assembly and Lok Sabha seats in Karnataka to end, no one in the state is ready to hazard a guess as to who the next chief minister will be.

The BJP is yet to declare a chief ministerial candidate. As for the Congress, everything depends on how many seats the party, led by Chief Minister SM Krishna, will be able to win this time.

"Arun Jaitely was sensible in declaring that the BJP will decide its chief ministerial candidate after the polls. BJP state unit chief Ananth Kumar has not had enough time to paper over all the cracks in the party. There would have been a rebellion within the organisation if he had been named chief minister," said MU Patil, a professor at the Dharwad University.

Dissension in the BJP is out in the open. Some of the problems stem from Ananth Kumar's abrasive style of functioning, and a lot of it also has to with the fact that vested interests have made their way into the party and are reluctant to let go.

On the one hand, there are men like R Gokhale, a personal friend of Ananth Kumar and an office bearer in the Hubli-Dharwad district unit. He was denied a ticket despite being personally assured by Kumar on this count (the Dharwad ticket went to Prahalad Joshi).

On the other, a section of the Udupi unit of the BJP are openly defying Ananth Kumar's fiat that they work for Raghupati Bhat, president of the district unit, rather than Sudhakar Shetty, who was the BJP's candidate for the Udupi Assembly seat last time.

Shetty had lost by just 700 votes and felt it was unfair of the party not to have renominated him. The sympathies of a section of the party are with him and they support his claim, which is why he is contesting as an Independent after his expulsion by Ananth Kumar.

The Gulbarga unit of the BJP is also witnessing a power struggle between Ananth Kumar and former state BJP chief Basavaraj Patil Sedam.

At a workers' meeting in Gulbarga recently, presided over by former Union Minister of State for Railways and local BJP chief Basanagouda Patil Yatnal, the president and vice-presidents of the district unit stayed away because they were not invited. Both are supporters of Sedam.

If the BJP is preoccupied with legitimising Ananth Kumar's political ambition in the state, the Congress has a different problem. Former Prime Minister and Janata Dal (Secular) chief HD Deve Gowda may win a sizeable number of seats from the Old Mysore and Hassan areas.

In the event of a hung Assembly, Krishna may approach Deve Gowda for his help to form the next government. In fact, Congress leaders predict that if the party has to enter into a coalition with the Janata Dal (Secular) to form a government, Krishna could end up being replaced.

The issue in Karnataka now is not which party will form the government, but who will be the next chief minister. And one may have to wait till after May 13 for the answer.