How can India power more than a billion air conditioners by 2050?

The IEA projects that by 2050, there could be more than a billion air conditioners in India

We all want to feel cool. Anyone who has experienced the record-breaking heat in India in recent years, on top of the normally hot summer months, needs no reminder of the importance of feeling cool in our homes, offices and schools. It’s good for our comfort, our health and our productivity. With increasing incomes, more Indian people will naturally choose to buy fans and air conditioners, and this will bring great benefits.

As we plan for this future, we must take account how this equipment will be powered. While in a small number of countries such as US and Japan, most homes have air conditioners, at present only 5 per cent of Indian homes do. In China, air conditioner ownership has grown to a level of almost two in every three homes, from virtually nothing just 30 years ago, showing how fast growth can be. It is the energy implications of this that we in the IEA have been focusing on.

By 2050, our projections suggest that there could be more than a billion air conditioners in India.

Cooling is essential, but if it isn’t done efficiently, it could place a major strain on India’s energy system, with cooling energy demand growing as much as 15-fold over the next three decades. To add to it, the peak demand from cooling – especially when people come home in the evening and turn on those air conditioners – can put additional pressure on electricity systems, potentially reaching as much as 45% of India’s peak electricity load in 2050.

A big part of the challenge of growing cooling demand is that everywhere, including in India, people are buying air conditioners that are significantly less efficient than what is available. There exist air conditioners that are more than twice as energy efficient as the ones people generally buy today, indicating that there is room for improvement.

Without proactive effort to drastically improve air conditioner performance, electricity demand for cooling services in buildings in India could reach a third of total electricity growth in India by 2050, making India the single largest consumer of electricity for cooling globally. This would require over 800 GW of additional power generation capacity, just for cooling.

The risk is that, without policy actions, cooling growth will happen inefficiently and these increases in demand on power generation could lead to great costs, more air pollution, and more greenhouse gas emissions.

Doing nothing is not an option. 

There are a number of things that can be done, but one stands out: that is ensuring people buy more energy efficient air conditioners. Government plays a crucial role in the transition towards a more efficient world by setting standards that push the markets harder and ensure that people buy more efficient air conditioners. This can have a quick and immediate impact on shaping the market availability of efficient air conditioners. In addition, government can also intervene through bulk procurement measures that would bring down the price of more efficient appliances and equipment, thus bringing the energy efficiency premium down. India is already the best in the world at this type of measure.

And the good news is: the investments in these measures will ultimately pay for themselves: the cumulative savings of more than 8000 TWh of electricity over the next 30 years  could cut power generation investments in India by as much as 300 billion USD. Consumers benefit too: with the cost of running air conditioners reduced by a third or more.

Throw in clean power, and cooling-related emissions could actually be lower than today – but with 15 times as many households having access to air conditioning. And this is only one piece of the puzzle. Further savings are possible through policies and measures to improve the performance of buildings. 
 

India is already showing the way in intelligent policy making for cooling. The government’s recent advisory to have manufacturer’s place the set temperature of air conditioners at 24 degrees has been a smart move as it nudges people into using less energy, almost invisibly. ‘When the temperature for air conditioners is set at 24 degree Celsius as compared to 18, 36% electricity is saved. It is good for health and the budget. Air conditioner manufacturers are happy with the step,' said the minister RK Singh.

All countries face the need to do something to address energy-efficiency in cooling, for India it is just a question of greater scale. India has already made great strides in energy efficiency, and especially towards more sustainable cooling, for instance with the recent update of the energy performance requirements (iSEER) for air conditioners, the  recent update of the Energy Conservation Building Codes and the advisory to manufacturers on the default temperature setting. Key actors in the Ministry, the Bureau of Energy Efficiency, and elsewhere know the importance of the issue. India has a strong institutional framework in place to tackle this challenge. 

And India is not on its own. Many countries are facing similar challenges and there are opportunities for learning from each other. Countries want to see what India has achieved. Hopefully, the future will see India power more than a billion air conditioners with the energy efficiency and avoid the looming 'cold crunch'.

Brian Motherway is the head of the Energy Efficiency Division, International Energy Agency. He tweets @BrianRMotherway