How changing monsoon 'normal' is likely to affect the farm calendar

Prompted by a rising visible impact of climate change on the variability of Indian monsoon, IMD is in the process of revising the monsoon onset and withdrawal dates

With July ending, the 2019 edition of southwest monsoon is nearly halfway through. But showers across the country have disappointed again this time, as they have at least twice in five recent years. At the time of writing, actual rainfall this year had been only 80 per cent of the “normal” amount of rainfall India should have experienced to date.

The reason, according to most meteorologists, is that the monsoon wind arrived late this time. Against the normal date of “onset” at the coast of Kerala, June 1, monsoon rains arrived in the coastal state on June 8. Similarly, monsoon came in financial capital Mumbai on June 25 — 18 days too late from the “normal” arrival date of June 7.

National capital Delhi, meanwhile, waited for six more days and received seasonal rains on July 5, when new finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman was delivering her Budget speech in Parliament.

This “normal” is the key driver of comparisons — be it the amount of rainfall or the time of arrival. What if this “normal” itself changes?

The India Meteorological Department (IMD), prompted by a rising visible impact of climate change on the variability of Indian monsoon, is in the process of revising the monsoon onset and withdrawal dates. The total quantum of “normal” rains could also fall from 89 cm to 87 cm.

Experts said that any unusual delay in the onset dates could have a far-reaching impact on sowing schedules, drought declaration procedure and also cropping pattern, especially in central and western parts of India, along with regions in northern states. These regions predominantly practise rain-fed farming.

The first thing to get affected, they said, could be the sowing schedule for kharif farmers. With an improved information flow to farmers compared to earlier, progressive farmers are likely to take this as a signal to sow later than normal.

This could delay their schedule of buying seeds and fertilisers, and the local markets for farm inputs would realign themselves to the new schedule, experts said.

In this respect, data already show that farmers have started aligning with the vagaries of monsoon. The sowing status is repeatedly falling below normal in June, as farmers now generally wait for good rains rather than re-sowing.

For example, in Punjab, late paddy is not sown until the first brush of rains in the middle of July, against late June or early July, but a formal alteration could have much bigger consequences.

For the government, this will mean that it will have to change its drought-declaration schedule. In addition to the rain-fed kharif crop, this externality will impact the processes involved in rabi crop cultivation as well.

As of now, the monsoon situation and rainfall position are monitored until October 31 in case of kharif season and February 28 in case of rabi before states can declare a drought.

If the rainfall gets delayed and deficient, gazette notifications on scarcity/drought would undergo a change, as the threshold for declaration will change, too: both in amount and temporal spread. Drought declaration would change more so at the state level, as there would be some states whose “normal” indicators have got revised by a higher degree.

The change will also impact farm exports. Exporters might need to rework their export commitments, if at all farmers adapt to the official change in normal definitions. This will be important particularly for rice, wheat, pulses and maize exporters.

“Maize farming could get a boost if rain schedules are change as farmers will have a shorter window before wheat is planted or else their yields could go down,” a former director of Maize Research Institute said.

On the other hand, declaration of a minimum support price could also get delayed.

A change in the arrival date of monsoon could also delay the plantation of wheat, India’s main rabi crop. Cases of yield getting severely affected could also come up if the crop is exposed to sudden temperature spikes, which happen in late winter.

However, there is a possibility that this “official” change might not impact the farm calendar substantially. A recent report by India Ratings and Research shows that sowing progress and agricultural output are slowly becoming independent of the amount of rainfall.

“Indian agriculture’s resilience towards adverse weather shocks (deficient rainfall) has undoubtedly increased over the years owing to increased irrigation intensity (gross irrigated area as a percentage of gross cropped area). However, the ability to absorb the shock varies across states and is linked to the overall area under irrigation,” it said.

Monsoon enters Kerala coast on June 1, covers much of central and western India between June 5 and 15, and enters North India from July 1. These dates might get pushed a bit ahead.

Over the past few years, its progress over Central and North India has been delayed even if it has reached the Kerala coast on time, a reason why new onset and withdrawal dates are being expected in some parts of the country.

The tweak, according to senior IMD officials, is being made to give farmers correct information about the arrival and withdrawal of monsoon so that they can make informed sowing decisions, particularly in the rain-fed western and central India and parts of North India.

“The agriculture ministry needs to give proper advisories to farmers to inform them about a change in sowing schedules. Also, we need to observe whether it is a long-term trend. Already, farmers in Punjab have started planting paddy only after the first showers. But yes, overall crop production might not get altered as the season will be of four months,” Mahendra Dev, director, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research (IGIDR), told Business Standard.