How PM Modi plans to use delimitation to change J&K's political map

Kashmir division is likely to gain five seats while Jammu division will gain two seats following the delimitation exercise

The abrogation of Article 370 through The Jammu and Kashmir Reorganisation Act 2019 has also set the stage for delimitation of constituencies in the newly-created union territory. Article V of The Jammu and Kashmir Reorganisation Act 2019 has several important provisions relating to delimitation in the state. Among others, three are of critical importance. Firstly, the delimitation exercise will be undertaken on the basis of population figures of the 2011 census instead of the 2001 census. Secondly, the number of seats in the Jammu & Kashmir assembly has been increased by seven – from 83 earlier (excluding four from Ladakh region) to 90 at present. Thirdly, there is an emphasis on the new bill for reservation of assembly seats post delimitation for Scheduled Tribes (STs). Previously only seven assembly seats in the Jammu division were reserved for Scheduled Castes (SCs).

According to the 2011 census, the population of the newly created union territory was 12 million. Of these 5.5 million people reside in the Jammu division, whereas 6.9 million people inhabit the Kashmir division. Contrary to reports in certain academic circles, the population of the Kashmir division has grown faster than that of the Jammu division from 2001 to 2011. A report written by Ashok Malik, former press secretary to the President of India, for the Observer Research Foundation earlier this month, stated, “The skew towards the Valley has remained unchanged since a delimitation exercise in the early 1990s. Population shifts in the period since then have not been accounted for: rising numbers in Jammu, declining numbers in Kashmir—for reasons including the post-1989 exodus of Hindus from a Valley that is today almost 100-per cent Muslim.” 

While there is no debating Malik’s assertion on the complete dominance of Muslims in the Kashmir valley, the population in Kashmir division has grown 26 per cent, while the Hindu majority Jammu region’s population has grown by 22 per cent during this period. In many ways, whatever little difference the Hindu exodus made to the valley’s population in the 1990s has been more than compensated by the higher birth rate.

So, how will this demographic change affect the distribution of seats in the delimitation exercise that will be undertaken soon? Earlier, the Jammu division had 37 seats while Kashmir had 46 seats in addition to four seats of the Ladakh division in the erstwhile state’s 87 member assembly. With Ladakh separated from Jammu & Kashmir and with the addition of seven more seats under the Jammu and Kashmir Reorganisation Act 2019, the number of seats in the union territory would rise to 90. With the 2011 census as the basis for calculation, it becomes evident that Kashmir division would be the biggest gainer. 

Had the Modi government not increased the seats from 83 to 90, then according to the 2011 census, every constituency would have had an average of 150,000 voters. This would have meant the Jammu division would have had 36 seats – one less than it currently commands. The Kashmir division, in turn, would have had 47 seats – one more than it has at present. With the addition of seven seats, the average population of a constituency has been reduced to 140,000. Of these additional seats, two will go to the Jammu division, taking its tally to 39. The remaining five would go to the Kashmir division taking its share to 51 seats in the new 90 member assembly. 

While details are yet not clear, the delimitation exercise could also redraw the boundaries of several constituencies. The Election Commission of India’s delimitation procedures allow for a 10 per cent deviation from the average number of people in every constituency. While this rule is followed in most states in India, the lack of a delimitation exercise has meant that many constituencies in Jammu & Kashmir are not in conformity with it. For instance, there are several constituencies in Jammu division’s Doda and Kathua districts where the population is less than 50,000 – much less than the required average of 140,000. Then there are some constituencies where the population is almost twice the required average. This inconformity could potentially lead to drastic redrawing of several constituencies – those with sparse populations could be merged while bigger ones could be split.

Another important development was the reservation of seats for scheduled tribes, which could have political repercussions in the Union Territory. STs comprise 12 per cent of Jammu and Kashmir’s population – higher than SCs for whom seats are reserved in the erstwhile state. Unlike some other states in India, there are no reserved seats for tribals in the territory. The largest tribal group in Jammu and Kashmir are the Gujjars, who trace their origins to present day Gujarat and Rajasthan. Both Gujjars and Bakkerwals (the second biggest tribe) are predominantly Muslim. Almost two-thirds of the state’s tribal population is Gujjar and, unlike the Ladakhi tribes, they are found in almost all districts of Jammu and Kashmir.

According to the Delimitation Act 2002, the number of seats for STs is to be “reserved in the constituencies in which the percentage of their population to the total population is the largest.” If seats were to be reserved for tribals, the community could end up bagging anywhere between six and 10 seats. This would mean certain seats in the overwhelmingly Muslim Kashmir division would also be reserved for STs. In at least two districts of the Kashmir division – Ganderbal and Bandipore – tribals make up a fifth of the population. Certain assembly seats in these districts are overwhelmingly tribal. For instance, tribals make up almost half the population of Kangan assembly constituency in Ganderbal district. This seat has been a National Conference pocket borough, with its candidate Mian Altaf winning it every time since 1987. Altaf belongs to the Gujjar community. In fact since 1957, Kangan has been held by one or the other member of Mian’s family. Similarly, tribals comprise 82 per cent of the population in the assembly constituency of Gurez in Bandipore district. Almost a fourth of the population of Bandipore constituency itself is tribal. There are some other constituencies like Shangus and Kokernag in Anantnag district where tribals account for almost a fourth of the population on an average.

STs account for 15 per cent of Jammu division’s population and for seven per cent of the Kashmir division’s population. In Poonch and Rajouri districts of Jammu, more than 36 per cent of the population is tribal. In Reasi district, tribals account for 28 per cent of the population. In Surankote assembly constituency of Poonch, they make up half the population. The district’s Mendahar constituency is also significantly tribal in nature. In Rajouri district, almost half the population of Rajouri constituency is tribal. In other constituencies like Drahal and Kalakote, they make up almost 40 per cent of the population on average. Barring Kalakote, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) hasn’t tasted victory in any of these seats of the Jammu division since 2002.

The BJP could well make a dent in the Kashmir valley if it manages to woo the substantial tribal population. An indication of this came on Sunday when BJP’s national general secretary Ram Madhav told the press after addressing a tribal rally, “There was no provision for political reservation for Scheduled Tribe (ST) communities in J&K. But now we will provide political reservation to tribals. Seats for ST communities will be reserved in J&K assembly. This will be a big gift to Gujjar and Bakarwal community.” In fact, BJP’s J&K chief Ravinder Raina was even more vocal while addressing a rally of Gujjars and Bakkerwals on Sunday. He said, “Gujjars and Bakerwals were cheated by NC and PDP. Only the BJP has given you justice. Article 370 has been removed, you will get a political reservation in J&K now. You can also send your representatives to the assembly."

The Jammu division is likely to gain two seats following the delimitation exercise

The Kashmir division is likely to gain five seats following the delimitation exercise