Even as crude oil prices are believed to be weighed down due to global factors such as US credit crisis, slowing consumption in Europe and unrest in Middle East, industry experts look up to Asian countries like India and China as next growth regions for oil consumption for medium to long term.
Platts – a division of McGraw-Hill Companies and one of the leading global provider of energy information sees high potential for crude oil consumption in emerging economies like India and China over US, UK and other European countries."The US is reeling under credit crisis, while parts of Europe appear to be bankrupt, hence, the growth in crude oil consumption from these countries is less likely to happen. It is these economies' high dependence on crude oil that the prices are getting affected due crisis there," said Shahrin Ismaiyatim, Global Editorial Director (Petrochemicals), Platts.
He noted that external factors like downgrading of credit rating of these economies and revolution in the Middle East are playing spoilsport for growth in crude oil consumption in these regions. "Looking at the robust economic growth in India and China along with population growth in there indicates strong outlook for crude oil consumption in these countries," said Shahrin, who was in Ahmedabad on Thursday to address a Polymer Forum organised by Platts.
Quoting data compiled by BP, he mentioned that in 2010, US' crude oil consumption grew by just 2 per cent, while China achieved 10 per cent growth in oil consumption. Though India's oil consumption grew by 2.9 per cent, barely higher than US but the outlook remained positive.
On the polymers front, per capita consumption of polymers in India is believed to double from 8 kg per person in 2010 to 16 kg per person by 2015.
As per Platts' estimation, India's per capita polymer consumption to reach 27 kg per person by 2020. A large volume of the demand is likely to be met through imports.
"The major drivers for the growth for polymer consumption would be housing and automobile sectors, however agriculture is also a major consuming sector. Considering this, polymer demand in India is expected to remain firm, unlike the US where housing market has slowed down," he said.