India readies for post-junta Myanmar

Yesterday, a Western news agency asked an Indian official about New Delhi's stance on the situation in Myanmar. "It is too early to say anything" was the answer it got.

Today, two days after Petroleum Minister Murli Deora returned from Yangon after witnessing ONGC Videsh's signing of production-sharing contracts with Myanmar Oil and Gas Enterprise for three exploration blocks as part of a government-to-government deal (India did not have to bid), New Delhi reacted to the same question with disapproval.

"The government of India is concerned at and is closely monitoring the situation in Myanmar. It is our hope that all sides will resolve their issues peacefully through dialogue. India has always believed that Myanmar's process of political reform and national reconciliation should be more inclusive and broad-based", said a government spokesman.

This means New Delhi sees the military regime in Yangon as floundering and is urging talks with the pro-democracy elements, including religious leaders. India has reacted ahead of China, its principal rival for Yangon's affections.

China merely said, "As a friendly neighbouring country of Myanmar, China hopes to see stability and economic development."

Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Jiang Yu added quickly that "China adopts a policy of non-interference in the affairs of other countries". China and India are Myanmar's biggest trading partners.

This statement marks a new turn in New Delhi's relations with Yangon. Relations between India and Myanmar were cordial but static till 2000, when the first senior representative of the military regime there visited India.

This itself was a recognition that Myanmar was slowly giving up the "Burmese Way to Socialism" experiment and had initiated a series of market-oriented reforms, relaxing earlier restrictions on private industry and trade.

By 2000, it was also offering incentives to attract foreign investment. The reforms, though partial, brought about an improvement in the economic situation but slowed after the Asian financial crisis of 1997.

In 2003, the economy had to face a crisis in the banking sector and additional US sanctions.

But India stood by Burma despite being uncomfortable about the treatment meted out to the international face of pro-democracy forces.

Following street protests during Deora's visit, India is readying itself to jump sides should the military regime be overthrown.

Meanwhile, competitive politics in the region is escalating in response to the crisis.