India, Russia must jointly push for multipolar world: JNU professor

Russia expert Anuradha Chenoy’s latest book is Re-emerging Russia: Structures, Institutions and Processes. In this interview with Aditi Phadnis, she discusses the significance of the informal meeting between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and President Vladimir Putin at Sochi earlier this month

What led to the informal meeting between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and President Putin at Sochi ? Such meetings are rare any way but in recent times, have become rarer still...

Formal meetings and summits have clear official agendas, records and processes. India and Russia have formal bilateral meetings on a regular basis. The idea of an informal meeting can be for innovative ideas, confidence building between leadership, and to sort out certain delicate matters, that could have arisen between them, especially in the context of third countries, that cannot be put on an official agenda.

India-Russia relations are such that the formal bilateral and multilateral engagements have been termed as special friendship, consistent high level strategic partnership and so on. But yet the two leaders needed this informal meeting because there appeared to be a drift in this relationship, and questions were being raised about intentions. 

Based on recent evidence and developments, an informal meeting between President Putin and PM Modi had become necessary because of the following reasons. 1. India needed clarifications from Russia about their increasing strategic tie up with China, and Chinese pressure on Russia to participate in the Belt Roadway Initiative in regions of strategic concerns of India. 2. India, particularly the PM needed reassurance that Russia would continue to give high priority and privilege their relation with India as opposed to building relations with Pakistan, and engaging with the Taliban in Afghanistan. 3. That Russia continue to support India on the question of Kashmir and terrorism from Pakistan. 

President Putin on the other hand wanted the informal meeting for assurances albeit confidentially from India that: 1. India continue to oppose imposition of unilateral sanctions. 2. That India’s continuous tilt towards the USA would not come in the way of the privileged Russia-India relation. 3. That India continues its ‘independent’ foreign policy where, they did not join Western criticism of Russia on the issue of Ukraine and Crimea; Russian position of opposing regime change in West Asia, especially Syria.

Russia is under sanctions from the US under the Countering America’s Adversaries through Sanctions Act (CAATSA) law although the operationalisation of the law is not evident. Given India and Russia’s defence relationship, how much of the threat does this law represent? 

Both Russia and India’s most immediate concern for the informal engagement is a discussion and creative thinking of the impasse being created by the highly inconsistent if not temperamental and de-stabilising policies of President Trump. The most recent policy that particularly hits both Russian and Indian interests has to do with the USA imposing unilateral sanctions against Russia (after an alleged but unproven chemical gas attack in Syria). These sanctions under the ‘Countering America’s Adversaries through Sanctions Act (CATSA)’, imposes sanctions even on third parties that trade with Russia. 

Clearly this is disastrous for both Russia and Indian as they are tied in a complex defence relationship. India, remains heavily dependent on Russian military equipment, aircraft, submarines, entire defence platforms etc. Russia and India are engaged in joint production and sales to third countries. There are contracts and deals to be honoured. Given the sanctions, Russia needs India, China and others for trade and investments. The $4.5 billion S-4 air defence systems that India has ordered are particularly important. PM Modi has assured the Russians there will be no going back on this. This endears Modi to the Russians at this conjuncture of their history.

Clearly, any sanctions against Russia cannot be seen in isolation. These sanctions mean sanctions against multiple countries in the complex international trading system. These chains cannot be broken due to the whims and imagination of the American deep state. The Russian President and Indian PM would have discussed how the two can deal with such US sanctions that go against the interest of both these countries specifically and against world trade at large.Earlier also the US had placed sanctions on India after Indian nuclear experiments, but Russia had ignored these sanctions. Now it is their turn to test Indian loyalty. 

What is the international background against which the meeting took place? 

Indian foreign policy advisors would have guessed by now, that despite their fawning over the Trump administration, they are not getting what they expected from this US administration. On the contrary, the protectionism unleashed by President Trump, his open and derogatory remarks about immigrants in general, his white racisms, the decrease in visas for Indians seeking greener pastures and the atmosphere of yet another economic crises, needs an urgent re-orientation in foreign policy.

That is why PM Modi used the terms that India-Russia ties have been elevated to ‘special privileged strategic partnership’. This elevation, I believe, is timely and necessary because it is a thread on which hangs India’s reputation as an independent strategic player, and not one tied completely to one particular major power. It gives India the leverage it requires to negotiate the rough seas of changing geostrategic environment.

Further, countries led by the US and also the West are beginning to realise that globalisation was not in their favour. And just when India wants to open its economic laws even more, the West is beginning to build barriers and look inwards. In such an environment India and Russia and indeed other countries need to assert the need for a multipolar world.

India and China have agreed to put up a project in Afghanistan, though the contours of this are not clear yet. How will Russia react to this and other developments in Afghanistan?

Russia definitely is much in favour of the slow but clear thaw in Sino-Indian relations. Russia had used its good offices to de-escalate Chinese positions in the Doklam episode. Russia is in favour of Indian-Chinese cooperation in development partnership agreements in Afghanistan as a positive step.

India has invested greatly in Russian energy, especially in Sakhalin I and II. It would be to US’s interest to turn India from Russia to itself, given its own economic slowdown and its attempts to capture the world energy markets. However, this kind of shift would destroy the Indian economy, that requires multiple partners and relations and is heavily dependent on imported oil and hydrocarbons. The US sanctions on Russia in fact are aiming at this. Even the Europeans, especially Germany has had open debates about such outcomes. So sanctions on Russia now, given the rise in the price of oil, are beginning to hurt the world economy, but especially India. India will have to resist these sanctions hard. 

What should India do to give heft and weight to its relations with Russia?

There is no doubt that informal meetings cannot replace formal meetings which are backed by historical processes and signed agreements. If PM Modi has indeed elevated Russia-India’s ties to special privileged strategic partnership, his words should not be a string of adjectives. India will have to walk the talk. This means, they will have to defy US sanctions. It will mean that they will have to assist Russia, and many developing countries move the international system to one where the US does not continue with regime change, imposition of unilateral sanctions, open militarisation, at their convenience.

Both India and Russia along with others will have to push multilateral organisations like BRICS, SCO as well as push for UN reforms and changes in the Security Council. Further, both countries need to strengthen international law and take principled positions in the international system if they wish to develop their countries and peoples. India and Russia have often stood together for issues of the global South, against terrorism, and for peace. This needs to continue.