India's GDP likely to grow more than 9.5% in FY22: SBI research report

The country's gross domestic product (GDP) is likely to grow more than 9.5 per cent in fiscal 2021-22, an SBI research report-Ecowrap said.

The economy grew at 8.4 per cent in the second quarter of the current fiscal, according to data released by the National Statistical Office (NSO) on Tuesday. The growth in the April-June quarter of this fiscal stood at 20.1 per cent.

In October's monetary policy review, the Reserve Bank of India had retained its projection for real GDP growth at 9.5 per cent in 2021-22, consisting of 7.9 per cent in Q2; 6.8 per cent in Q3; and 6.1 per cent in Q4 of 2021-22.

We believe that the real GDP growth would now be higher than the RBI's estimate of 9.5 per cent, assuming the RBI growth numbers for Q3 and Q4 to be sacrosanct, the research report said.

The real GDP growth may be near to 10 per cent, it added.

The report said the GDP grew by 8.4 per cent in Q2 FY22 on the back of double-digit growth in mining and quarrying, public administration, defence and other services. The real GVA increased by 8.5 per cent, a tad higher than the GDP growth.

In H1 FY21, the country exhibited a real GDP loss of Rs 11.4 lakh crore (on a year-on-year basis) due to complete lockdown in April-May and partial lockdown in June-September, it added.

The situation has improved in FY22, and in H1 FY22 the real gain was around Rs 8.2 lakh crore.

This indicates that real loss of Rs 3.2 lakh crore still needs to be recouped to reach the pre-pandemic level, the report said.

The sector-wise data indicates that trade, hotels, transport, communication and services related to broadcasting are still the most affected, and the real loss of Rs 2.6 lakh crore is still needed to be recouped in these sectors, it noted.

Overall, the economy is still operating at 95.6 per cent of the pre-pandemic level (with trade, hotels, transport, communication & services related to broadcasting still at 80 per cent) and should take one more quarter to recoup the losses.

In Q2 FY22, the FMCG sector reported top-line year-on-year growth of 11 per cent, while EBIDTA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortisation) and PAT grew by 4 per cent each.

However, rural markets, which showed good resilience thus far during the pandemic, have slowed in the last couple of months as suggested by some of the industry majors, according to the report.

The research report said the new investment announcements in the current year looks encouraging, with around Rs 8.6 lakh crore investment announcements made so far in the last seven months of FY22.

With the private sector contributing around 67 per cent of this i.e. Rs 5.80 lakh crore, it seems private investment revival is on the horizon, it added.