The latest projections from the Central Electricity Authority (CEA), the planning body for the Indian power sector, comes at a time when acute coal shortages, environmental hurdles and transmission woes are hurting electricity generation.
CEA in its latest report said , “The country is expected to experience energy shortage of 6.7 per cent and a peak shortage of 2.3 per cent with very high shortages to be experienced by the southern region. This is due to transmission constraints between Northern-North Eastern-Eastern-Western-Southern Regional Grid, which restricts flow of power to the southern region,”.
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In the current financial year, the capacity addition would be 18,432 megawatt (Mw) with majority contribution coming from thermal sources, it said. Out of the estimated additional capacity, thermal plants would account for 15,234 Mw, hydro sources 1,198 Mw and the remaining 2,000 Mw from nuclear energy. Energy shortfall is expected to be 70,232 million units(MU), resulting in a deficit of 6.7 per cent. The requirement would be 10,48,533 MU whereas the availability is pegged at 9,78,301 MU. “Considering transmission constraints, anticipated all India peak shortage works out to 6.2 per cent,” CEA said.
The projections have been made after taking into consideration power availability from operating stations, fuel and water availability at hydro electric plants. “The gross energy generation in the country has been assessed at plants in operation and those expected to be commissioned during the year in consultation with generating companies/ State Electricity Boards and take into consideration proposed maintenance schedule of units during the year,” it said.
The country’s power sector map is divided into five regions — Northern, Western, Southern, Eastern and North Eastern. Among them, South is projected to see the maximum electricity shortages of 19.1 per cent this financial year.
It would be followed by Northern-Eastern with a shortage of 11.3 per cent, Northern at 5.8 per cent and Western 1.2 per cent.
Meanwhile, the Eastern region is anticipated to see an energy surplus of 10.2 per cent. CEA noted that peaking shortages in the Northern, Southern and North-Eastern Regions would be 1.3 per cent, 26.1 per cent and 10 per cent, respectively. Generally, peaking shortage refers to the shortfall in electricity supply when the demand is maximum. In 2012-13, the energy shortfall touched 8.7 per cent while peak shortage reached nine per cent.