India wary of talks outcome

New Delhi has proposed 72 CBMs

Amid warnings to its allies, not to expect too much from the foreign minister-level talks, the Indian government ended the first day of India-Pak negotiations on a positive note, government sources said although no breakthroughs were achieved.

Foreign Minister Natwar Singh and his Pakistani counterpart Khurshid Mahmud Kasuri met today for the first ministerial-level talks on Kashmir in three years and although it was earlier agreed in principle that the strength of the two high commissions was to be restored to original levels (110), the release of all civilian prisoners, the return of all unintentionally transgressing fishermen and other people-friendly confidence building measures (CBMs) even these have been achieved only in part.

India has suggested a "softer Line of Control (LoC)" though the nature of travel documents which will deem to have given a measure of autonomy to Kashmir, is holding up travel between Srinagar and Muzaffarabad.

India has suggested to Pakistan, a total of a set of 72 CBMs in a variety of areas.

These including military CBMs like new communication links between the operations chiefs of the air force and navy of the two countries along the lines of the link already existing between the directors-general of military operations, links and exchanges of visits between the armed forces of the two countries.

Trade CBMs, including opening the Attari-Wagah land route for trade, allowing flag carriers of both countries to lift cargo for third countries from each others' ports, supply of petroleum products from India to Pakistan including extending a diesel pipeline to Pakistan, have also been proposed and will be discussed by the two ministers.

The question is whether any of these substantial CBMs will be adopted in the joint statement that is likely to be issued at the end of the discussions.

Natwar Singh hosted a dinner for Kasuri today. The Pakistani minister would call on Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and National Security Advisor JN Dixit on Monday, officials said.

On Monday, Kasuri and Petroleum Minister Mani Shankar Aiyar would meet over lunch to discuss the future of a proposed $ 3.5 billion pipeline designed to transfer gas from Iran to India through Pakistan, officials said.

Security issues are top of the mind in these negotiations, though Aiyar has written to the Prime Minister that he is keen to clinch the pipeline deal from Iran to India via Pakistan.

Iran has been pursuing the pipeline proposal with New Delhi and Islamabad since 1996. It is estimated Iran will save $300 million per year in energy costs.

Tehran also suggested that the pipeline be owned and operated by an international consortium of bankers and oil companies, which would buy the gas from Iran and sell it to India.

It argued such a deal would ensure that India did not have to deal with Pakistan directly, thus removing Islamabad's motivations to disrupt supplies.

The Indian assessment is that even though no concrete results should be expected from this set of meetings, the atmosphere created by the talks is forward movement in itself.

Indian foreign office sources say Pakistan, for domestic reasons, is in no hurry to conclude the talks, at least till December, when Pakistan President Gen Pervez Musharraf, who took power in a bloodless coup in 1999, had promised the hard-line Mutahida Majlis-e-Amal to retire as head of the army, paving the way for him to stay on as a civilian president.

However, recently when asked in an interview with the British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC) whether he would heed calls from supporters to stay on in uniform, Musharraf said: "We have to wait and see."

The Indian government views this as uncertainty on politics ahead and expects Pakistan interlocutors to wait till this is sorted out.