The annual threat assessment by the Director of US National Intelligence has said the US cannot expect a “pragmatic” India to always support America’s geo-strategic, economic and social policies in the future.
Delivering the annual threat assessment for the US Senate Select Committee on Intelligence, National Intelligence Dennis Director C Blair said on Thursday: “On the global stage, Indian leaders will continue to follow an independent course, characterised by economic and political pragmatism. New Delhi will not automatically support or oppose positions favoured by the US or any other major power.” He said the US is aware of India’s efforts to “follow an independent course characterised by economic and political pragmatism”.
With an ever-growing economy, India will look for a broad-based trade policy by seeking “new trade partners and gain access to vital energy markets, and generate the other resources required to sustain rapid economic growth.”
To this end, maintaining strong ties with the US is in India’s interest, especially with the country’s concern over the machinations of China and Pakistan, said Blair.
Calling South Asia “one of the world’s least integrated regions,” he said, India would take a greater interest to manage regional issues such as tensions with Pakistan, terrorism and instability among neighbours such as Nepal, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh.
Keeping in mind the sensitivities of “opinions of the Tamil and Bengali communities,” New Delhi will support “democratic forces” in Sri Lanka and Bangladesh, Blair added.
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The Composite Dialogue between India and Pakistan hinges on the latter’s efforts to dismantle the terror apparatus operating from its soil, he said.
Islamabad’s response to the Mumbai attacks would be its litmus test. While India does not have a military option, it will seek credible action to demonstrate Pakistan's sincerity. Else, it will be perceived as Islamabad’s efforts to “undercut India’s emerging international stature,” said Blair.
He added: “Pakistan-based groups could carry out additional attacks against India and run the risk of provoking an India-Pakistan conflict”.
With the global financial crisis as the backdrop, the US must focus on the “arc of instability” between West Asia and South Asia, and also keep note of India and China, which would shape the global power structure in the future.
Blair said: “East and South Asia are poised to become the long-term power centre of the world. China and India are restoring the positions they held in the 18th century when China produced approximately 30 per cent, and India 15 per cent, of the world’s wealth. These two countries are likely to surpass the GDP of all other economies except the US and Japan by 2025, although the current financial crisis may somewhat slow the momentum.”
India, China, Taiwan, Japan and South Korea point to the “rise of Asia” as a defining characteristic of the 21st century, he added.
Due to the global financial slowdown, the focus of many countries is on fixing their economies, many of the US allies will not be forthcoming in meeting “their defense and humanitarian obligations” in US-led operations around the world, especially the reconstruction of Iraq, counter-terror operations in Afghanistan and Pakistan, and providing aid to Africa.