India worries Trump's decisions might undermine Paris Agreement

Trump cuts back on domestic climate change targets and international climate finance commitments

“My administration is putting an end to the war on coal,” said US President Donald Trump on Tuesday, as he announced executive orders undoing the modest plans previous president Barack Obama had set in place to reduce emissions from coal power, increase industrial and transport efficiency and support the Paris Agreement by providing financial support to developing countries.

Early assessment by US-based groups suggested the move would prevent the US from reaching even the little it had committed under the Paris Agreement in 2015 — to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 2025 to 26-28 per cent below 2005 levels. The reductions could at best bring US to plateau about 14 per cent below 2005 levels, one analysis suggested. Almost all assessments have earlier warned that even the 26-28 per cent cuts offered by Obama were too little, when seen in relation to what is needed to be done by developed countries. 

Indian officials reacted sharply at the news, though off the record for the time being.  There was no official statement. 

“The US President’s actions to uncap the coal industry cater to his domestic constituency and are an internal domestic concern. But the decisions to kill funding against its international financial commitments to help developing countries fight climate change under the Paris Agreement is a huge setback. This could bring the global environmental movement to a halt. Where is the imperative now for the international community to bother about the Paris Agreement?” said one of India’s top climate change negotiators, wishing to remain anonymous. 

Trump’s 2018 budget proposal says it “eliminates the Global Climate Change Initiative and fulfils the President’s pledge to cease payments to the United Nations’ (UN) climate change programs by eliminating US funding related to the Green Climate Fund and its two precursor Climate Investment Funds.” The initiative was the route through which US provided climate funds to multilateral bodies for developing countries.  

“India and some other countries can continue to do what they want out of their domestic resources but the cutting back of climate finance from the US will hit the agreement. Without the financial commitments from developed countries such as the US, it will no more be an agreement about climate change and development. It will turn into a trade agreement between countries, using climate change as a tool to impose competitive advantage. This is extremely worrisome,” he added. 

The impact of US administration decision to cut back on its international climate finance commitments have already become visible. At an ongoing meeting of the Global Environment Facility (GEF) in Paris, the biggest multilateral investor on environment and climate change, concerns were raised about its total funding coming down from roughly $4-5 billion to $2.5-3 billion. 

Suggestions that large emerging economies such as India and China should fill the hole got an angry reaction from Indian quarters. 

“This is ridiculous. The country with the largest responsibility for climate change rescinds from its commitments and some expect the developing and poor countries to fill the gap,” said an Indian official familiar with the discussions in Paris. 

The meagre funding support the US had provided to GEF and the Green Climate Fund stands to considerably dry up, triggering a run to the bottom, warned other negotiators. “The pressure would be off on the European Union (EU) too to contribute, as it already felt it was doing more than its fair share among developed countries. Trump’s decisions could set a race to the bottom as far as global public climate finance flows are concerned,” said another official. 

Recently, at the G20 meeting, the US had pressured and the EU relented and got references to climate change finance off the final communique, the official noted. 

“Under the Paris Agreement, each country can decide on the set of policies it wants to put in place to meet its ‘nationally determined contribution’. President Obama, through his executive orders, put in place one set of policies. President Trump has ordered a review of the set of policy tools he would use. As of now, the US has not said it will rescind either from the Paris Agreement or the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change,” explained J M Mauskar, member of the Prime Minister’s council on Climate Change. 

“We are beginning to hear suggestions that against the possibility of the US stepping back, India should enhance its commitments. India has already committed to do more than its fair share under the Paris Agreement. With its over-riding priority of poverty eradication and in light of global equity, India cannot be asked to bear a greater than fair burden,” he added. 

Others Business Standard spoke to pointed to the weakness in the Paris Agreement and the way it was fashioned to help the previous US President take action, bypassing the legislative. This, in turn, made it easy for Trump to undo Obama’s executive decisions by his own. 

“Unlike Obamacare, which came through as a legislative process and which Trump failed to alter, Obama’s climate action plan has been undone immediately with an executive order. Obama was aware that he would never get even his meagre commitments to the Paris Agreement cleared through the Senate. 

So, the agreement’s language was moulded to help Obama commit to the pact through an executive order and take actions needed domestically to meet those commitments also through an executive order without legislative oversight. This has made it easier for Trump to undo it all,” said another official.