Indians are eating healthier food, as living standards have improved. Besides, as urbanisation spreads, the country will consume more wheat, pulses and less rice and coarse cereals in the coming years. Also, it will spend more on milk, eggs, poultry meat, fish and vegetables.
Experts recently told the Planning Commission that India’s per capita consumption of rice and coarse cereals is expected to come down in the next two decades, while that of wheat and pulses is projected to increase significantly.
“The per capita consumption of coarse cereals and rice has already started to decline, while the per capita consumption of wheat continues to rise slowly. The trend is projected to continue till 2039,” the experts said in a note.
The per capita capita consumption of wheat is projected to rise from 46.76 kilogram per year in 2011 to almost 62.33 kg by 2031. By 2039, it is expected to rise to 63.19 kg per year, the note said.
The per capita consumption of grams is projected to increase from 3.5 kg in 2011 to around 6.93 kg by 2031 and further up to 7.25 kilograms in 2039.
For pulses, too, the demand will rise significantly. The per capita consumption of pulses is projected to more than double from 7.13 kg at present to 14.53 kg in the next two decades. In 2039, the per capita consumption of pulses is projected at 15.46 kilograms per year.
This should cause some concerns to policy makers, as the per hectare yield growth in pulses has fallen to a record low since the Green Revolution, the note added.
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According to a study conducted by industry chamber Assocham, overall growth in the yield of pulses since 1967 has been a mere 1.14 per cent, while on the other hand, wheat, rice, oilseed and maize have witnessed compounded annual growth rates of 2.8 per cent, 2.23 per cent, 1.88 per cent and 1.7 per cent
Though this year, according to the third advanced estimate of farm production released recently by the ministry of agriculture, the country is projected to harvest an all-time high pulses output of around 17.29 million tonnes. However, much more needs to done as the per capita consumption is projected to increase in the next two decades.
The study also showed that the per capita consumption of rice is projected to decline from 51.33 kg per year to almost 38.55 kg in 2031, dropping further to 37.24 by the year 2039.
In the case of coarse cereals, the per capita consumption is expected to drop from 30.25 kg in 2011 to almost 20.98 kg in 2031, followed by 20.02 kg in 2039.
The presentation to the Plan panel also showed that of per capital expenditure on food items, almost 44 per cent will be on livestock products like milk, eggs, poultry, meat and fish, followed by vegetables, in the coming years.
“Of this consumption expenditure, the share of milk and milk products alone is estimated to be around 31 per cent,” the note said.
The note projected per capita consumption of milk and milk products to rise to Rs 4,648 per year by 2031 and almost Rs 5,354 per year by 3029, from around Rs 877 a year in 2011. For vegetables, the amount is projected to rise from Rs 533 per year in 2011 to almost Rs 1,895 per year in 2031.