With the southwest monsoon in July dismal, all hopes are now pinned on rains in August.
Traditionally, of the four-month southwest monsoon season, July is the wettest month. However, data shows in the last 10 years, six, including the two drought years of 2002 and 2004, saw more rains in August than in July.
Experts say even in the case of strong rains in August, the country’s overall agriculture scenario might not improve much. “It does not matter whether August rains are below or above normal, as the damage has already been done. If rains are extraordinarily good in August, it can make up for the drinking water shortage, but it definitely won’t help agriculture,” economist and former Union minister Y K Alagh told Business Standard. He feels growth in the kharif output would shrink to 0-0.5 per cent.
“In the past, too, there have been instances when rains in August and September have been more than in July. I hope that happens this year as well. If that happens, sowing across the country in early August would be good, and we would be able to make up for the loss in acreage, else we have to concentrate on the rabi harvest,” said M Prabhakar Rao, chairman and managing director of Nuziveedu Seeds, one of India’s biggest producers of hybrid seeds.
“There won’t be a marked improvement in the overall shortfall in rains. At best, the deficiency would come down by five-seven percentage points. The overall shortfall would remain at about 10 per cent,” said Ajit Tyagi, former director-general of India Meteorological Department (IMD).
Overall foodgrain production this year could fall by 10-12 million tones, primarily because of the fall in the output of coarse cereals during the kharif season.
IMD data shows last year, the southwest monsoon was about 15 per cent below normal in July. However, rains in August were about nine per cent above normal. In 2010, too, the monsoon in August was much better than that in July. In the drought years of 2002 and 2004, August beat July in terms of rainfall.