The bypoll results have shocked the Karnataka Janata Dal. The sudden reversal of fortunes is set to force a change in the style of functioning of Prime Minister H D Deve Gowda and Chief Minister J H Patel.
It would be an understatement to say that the results of the bypolls is a loss of face for Deve Gowda. The Dal lost in two assembly seats and one seat in the legislative council, the Graduates constituency in the Vokkaliga heartland. The Prime Minister had personally chosen the candidates in all the seats. Gowda had handed over the campaign in Ramanagaram to his MP son Kumaraswamy, in Chickanayakanahalli to C N Bhaskarappa MP, his trusted aide, and the Graduates seat to his son H D Revanna, Karnataka housing minister. In the bargain, the Prime Minister had ignored Chief Minister Patel, deputy Chief Minister Siddaramaiah (in respect of council nominee) and his own trusted aide P G R Sindhia transport minister.Only because of the euphoria that after two decades an Vokkaliga MLA from Ramnagara will become Chief Minister did Vokkaligas stand by Deve Gowda in the 1994 Assembly polls, an observer said.
As expected, Deve Gowda became the second Vokkaliga Chief Minister after K Hanumataiah. Even in the 1996 Lok Sabha polls his son was supported by the community, since Deve Gowda had staked the very future of his tenure in Vidhanasoudha. If some other party were to come to power in Delhi and JD were not to win so many seats, Gowda would have been forced out of gaddi the way Hegde was eased out in 1985 or Virendra Patil after the 1969 polls.
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The verdict in the bypoll is also being viewed as a rap on the policy of Deve Gowda to convert Vokkaliga dominated old Mysore area into his feifdom through his clan. Asks a senior Dal leader said: Otherwise why should a PM bother about bypolls on a day to day basis? Even from Davos he used to call us to find out the situation and whether his plans have been put to use or not.
In the absence of a wave, like the one in 1994, Vokkaligas are always a divided lot, unlike the other major caste, Lingayats.
The verdict signifies rejection of a single family dominating the scene, as well as the lacklustre performance and style of functioning of the Patel ministry.
The ministry may face a fresh round of dissidence and it may get tacit support from the Deve Gowda group within the legislature party. This may provide enough fodder for the rejuvenated Congress to put Patel on the mat.
The immediate fallout of the defeat of JD nominees would be felt by the trusted aides of Deve Gowda, like deputy Chief Minister Siddaramaiah, transport minister P G R Sindhia and Union civil aviation and information minister C M Ibrahim. According to a Gowda loyalist minister, all three face charges of sabotage and backstabbing.
Siddaramaiah was furious at the way Deve Gowda named Srikante Gowda for the legislative council. Today he has to explain his position on charges of stabbing the Gowda nominee in the back. P G R Sindhia also faces similar charges if Gowda loyalists are to be believed. The man who vacated the Kanakapura assembly seat for Gowda in 1989 may even face the axe if he fails to prove his loyalty now.
C M Ibrahim was hardly seen in Ramanagar and his snide remarks that what work I have now when everything is managed by Kumar have already reached the ears of the PM.
To begin with he may lose the state party presidentship and coveted portfolio of information and broadcasting, say insiders in the Dal.
A more worrysome factor for the Dal is the resurgence of a new social axis backing the Congress. In 1994, Deve Gowda had successfully broken the Congress hold by introducing the axis of Vokkaliga-minorities-other backward castes led by Kuruba (shepherds, accounting for 10 per cent of the states' population). This axis stood Gowda in good stead even in the 1996 Lok Sabha polls.
Today the scene has changed drastically as the Assembly bypoll results testify. A new social axis with Vokkaliga-lingayat-minorities plus backward classes in favour of Congress has emerged. Since the first two, major caste groups, are a divided house, the Dal could get a share of their votes. But the way Muslims and OBCs have moved out of the Dal fold pose a grave danger to the UF or JD-led social axis.