Key Contests: Baba Chand Nath vs Karan Singh Yadav

MANDATE 2004/LS COSTITUENCY WATCH - Rajasthan

In a battle between two outsiders, you do not have to be a rocket scientist to predict the winner of the Alwar Lok Sabha seat. Alwar is probably the only Lok Sabha constituency where over 70 effigies of one candidate have been burnt on the streets.

In this Yadav-dominated constituency, Bhara-tiya Janata Party's (BJP) Baba Chand Nath, with one murder case under his belt and out on a Supreme Court bail, seems to have started out on a wrong note with the electorate.

That he's a mahant from Rohtak in Haryana, travels around in a Toyota Land Cruiser and routinely refers to BJP chief M Venkaiah Naidu as Venkata Naidu, does not help his case. Being a Brahmin, winning an election in a predominantly Yadav constituency is another problem for Nath.

His opponent, Karan Singh Yadav of the Congress, seems to have everything going in his favour. Even though Yadav, a qualified heart surgeon, also does not belong to Alwar (he is from Bikaner), he has worked extensively in the constituency and was the superintendent of the Sawai Man Singh Hospital. Currently the sitting MLA from Behror, he is reported to have done a lot of charity work in Alwar.

The contest here is going to be solely on the basis of the personalities of the two candidates, with development issues on the sidelines.

Rajesh Singhal, a local hotel owner and political activist said: "The BJP under Vasundhara Raje might have swept Rajasthan in the Assembly elections, but people in Alwar are no fools. Yadav is going to win overwhelmingly."

Alwar was indifferent to the state electorate's overwhelming vote in favour of the BJP during the recently concluded Assembly polls. Of the 11 Assembly seats in the area, seven went to the Congress. Chief Minister Vasundhara Raje, thereby, chose not to touch Alwar during the Vijay Rath Yatra after her victory.

The sitting MP from Alwar, Jaswant Singh Yadav of the BJP, was denied a ticket this time due to a rape case against him. Before Nath was given the ticket, the BJP had planned to field actress Padmini Kohlapuri from Alwar. Kohlapuri's film producer husband Pradeep Sharma hails from Alwar. Kohlapuri is, however, learnt to have turned down the offer.

That the BJP had to bring in Nath as the consensus candidate speaks volumes about the dearth of people in their ranks, an employee with a leading newspaper said.

"In much of Rajasthan, the Congress and the BJP are the only two parties and there is no third force. So if one of the candidates is good or one of them is really bad, the result is an overwhelming majority in favour of the better candidate. Yadav is favoured to win," he said.

There was also infighting among BJP workers, with a section in the party owing allegiance to the sitting MP working to scuttle Nath's chances, a BJP worker said.

People in Alwar have been choosy about their candidates and the constituency has not been a stronghold of any one party. Therefore, results have generally swung between the two major national parties. Before Jaswant Singh Yadav in 1999, the Congress candidates Ghasi Ram Yadav and Nawal Kishore won in the 1998 and 1996 Lok Sabha polls, respectively. Way back in 1991, BJP's Mahendra Kumari had won the seat.

The statement by a leading local entrepreneur sums it all: "I have been a traditional BJP supporter but I will vote for the Congress this time around."

The BJP has also been slow on the starting block with the party announcing Nath's candidature a full 15 days after the Congress finalised Yadav's name.