Key Contests: Manvendra Singh vs Sona Ram Choudhary

MANDATE 2004/ LS CONSTITUENCY WATCH - Rajasthan

Its now or never," says Roop Singh, a 40-year old Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) worker, about the winning prospects of Manvendra Singh, elder son of Finance Minister Jaswant Singh in Barmer.

Barmer is a unique Lok Sabha constituency. It encompasses 78,000 sq km of desert land, and is almost the same size as Kerala, or a number of smaller European countries.

It has about 1.63 million voters and the constituency comprises not just Barmer district, but also Jaisalmer and the Shergarh district of Jodhpur. And the sheer distance one has to travel makes campaigning tough here.

Roop Singh's pronouncement about Manvendra's electoral prospects has a strong basis. Jats, Rajput, Muslims, Meghwal (SC and ST) and Bishnois are the main caste here. "A Jats will only vote for a Jat," he says. That means, Sona Ram Choudhary, a Jat himself and Congress member of Parliament from Barmer is assured of almost 4 lakh votes.

But, according to Adil Khan of Khalifa ki Bawri, a Muslim-dominated village in Barmer, Muslims, who have traditionally voted for Congress are unlikely to vote for Sona Ram in full strength.

"Muslims, with a vote strength of close to 3 lakh, have always determined the winner in Barmer," Khan says. "We have come to know that Finance Minister Jaswant Singh has helped Rajasthan with significant funds for water facilities. It's a vote for an individual and not the BJP," he says.

But why would Muslims vote for BJP, seen as a right wing Hindu party and allegedly behind the Babri Masjid demolition? "Nobody has forgotten that, sahib. We are not voting for the BJP. We are voting against the Jats who have betrayed us," says Ali Mohammed, who was one of the organisers of the rally in Khalifa ki Bawri.

"The true picture is that Jats and Muslims have always had an arrangement that the latter will support a Jat in Lok Sabha polls and that the Jats in return will help Muslim candidates win two Assembly seats. But, in the last year's Assembly polls, the Jats betrayed us. They did not vote for our candidates Abdul Hadi and Amin Khan in Chauhatan and Sheo, respectively. So, this is a vote against Sona Ram and not for the BJP," says his aide Fateh Khan.

Jaswant Singh attracted large Muslim crowds in border areas like Pokhran, Gagria, Mansar, Khalifa ki Bawri and Khaniyani. He took special care in addressing them, visited madrasas and even had a community lunch organised in Khalifa ki Bawri.

"One, however, doesn't know if the huge Muslim crowds will translate into votes for Manvendra Singh. Things can change overnight," says a Muslim voter standing to hear Jaswant Singh on the fringes of the huge pandal.

Manvendra has been campaigning non-stop along with his wife for the last 16-17 days in Barmer. He is scheduled to address public meetings in the Shergarh district only in the last few days. Manvendra made his debut in politics in the last Lok Sabha elections. He, however, lost out to Sona Ram by a margin of 32,000 votes. Sona Ram had won for the third time in a row in 1998.

The BJP has never won from Barmer in the past. Even known leaders like former Rajasthan Chief Minister Bhairon Singh Shekawat had to face defeat in Balmer.

"This time, though, it seems like a BJP wave," says Harivansh Vyas, a Pushkarna Brahmin and a traditional Congress worker. "The Muslims also realise that with a BJP government in the state, it makes sense to elect Manvendra Singh," he adds.

Both Manvendra Singh and Sona Ram have been drawing huge crowds, but the critical Muslim vote, will remain the deciding factor, since Rajputs and Jats are more or less in equal numbers, about 4 lakh each.

"And the SC/ST vote bank is also split between BJP and the Congress," says Tulsi Singh, a tea vendor in Sindhri village.

Its for Manvendra Singh and the BJP to take advantage of the situation. "As I said earlier, its now or never for him," adds Roop Singh.