Key Contests : Sonia Gandhi vs Ashok Singh

MANDATE 2004/ LS CONSTITUENCY WATCH - Uttar Pradesh

Rae Bareli is seen as a good example of the growing proximity between the BJP and Mulayam Singh Yadav's Samajwadi Party. Immediately after Congress president Sonia Gandhi decided to shift her constituency from Amethi to Rae Bareli, Yadav looked for a formidable candidate.

Mulayam's decision to field Ashok Singh, a powerful Thakur leader and elder brother of Akhilesh Singh, a legislator in the Uttar Pradesh Assembly, has buoyed the BJP camp. Even a BJP general secretary admitted that Ashok Singh will be the most suitable candidate for the BJP.

All over Rae Bareli, Ashok Singh has been using his money and muscle deftly to emerge as a powerful challenger to Sonia.

What appears to have strengthened his position is the consolidation of the Thakur votebank in his favour, following the rebellion of Akhilesh Singh against Pramod Tiwari, the leader of the state's Congress legislature party. Obviously, Mulayam is doing everything to help his candidate.

Though there is hardly any doubt about Sonia's victory in this traditional Congress stronghold, Mulayam's approach only confirms the worst fears of the Congress, i.e, Mulayam has been acting in tandem with the BJP.

A local Congress campaign manager pointed out that while Mulayam chose to field a little-known Madhu Gupta against Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee in Lucknow, he has fielded a strong opponent against Sonia.

Everyone in the Congress district headquarters admit that Mulayam has certainly caused trouble for Gandhi's campaign managers in areas under the influence of Ashok and Akhilesh.

"Sonia Gandhi may have to undertake a vigorous campaign in certain areas to neutralise Ashok's popularity," said a Congress leader.

One of Sonia's campaign managers KL Sharma has been camping in the district for the past two weeks to monitor the progress.

But what appears to have come as a windfall for the Congress is the unequivocal support of Muslims, who constitute a significant 14 per cent of the electorate.

Congress strategists have been using the growing proximity between the BJP and SP to amplify Muslims' suspicions about Mulayam's intentions in a post-poll scenario. Among a large section of Muslims, Mulayam is seen as a leader who would join the NDA after the elections.

That the Congress has been strategically using this fear to turn the tide in its favour in Rae Bareli, Sultanpur, Amethi, Pratapgarh and even in Varanasi is evident.

Congress leaders refer to the attitude of the Mulayam government at the time of the killing of 22 persons in a stampede at the sari-distribution function as another glaring example of his soft approach towards the BJP. Yadav was the first one to reach the residence of Lalji Tandon on whose birthday the function was organised.

Though Tandon was seen as the culprit for giving his approval to organise such a function, Yadav gave a clean chit to Tandon and made it clear that the tragedy must not be used to advance political gains.

"I am averse to the idea of politicising the tragedy," he had commented. Obviously, Yadav was forced to direct the state police to lodge an FIR after the intervention of the Election Commission. But all these issues have certainly put Mulayam on the defensive.

In the emerging political equations in the state, Mulayam has certainly lost a great deal of credibility among the Muslims. But it would be wrong to interpret it as the Congress's gain.

The vulnerable organisational structure of the party and intense infighting among local leaders like Jagdambika Pal and Pramod Tiwari has rendered the Congress incapable of taking advantage of Mulayam's weakness.

Apart from certain constituencies where the Congress candidates are powerful, the Congress has given up the fight much before the real battle begins.