Kharif output to rise 10.4% in 2010-11

The total foodgrain production in the ongoing kharif season is likely to be 114.63 million tonnes (mt), 10.4 per cent higher than the drought-hit 2009-10. Last year, the kharif foodgrain output was 103.84 mt, as drought had marred paddy production.

Despite concerns regarding adverse effect on standing crops due to delayed departure of monsoons and excess rainfall in northern parts of the country, the first advance estimates released by the Ministry of Agriculture paint a positive outlook. Sowing trends which had shown that over 95 per cent of the arable land has been brought under crop cover had already built expectations of robust foodgrain output in the current season. The acreage of all major crops had registered an increase in acreage with pulses topping the list.

Rice production in this kharif season is expected to be 80.41 mt, compared to 75.91 mt in the previous season. Cereals are expected to see a rise of 9.14 per cent in output to 108.64 mt this year compared to 99.54 mt last time.

Pusles and cotton are likely to see the highest year-on-year increase of 39.53 per cent and 39.93 per cent, respectively, this season at 6 million tonnes and 33.5 million bales.

However, an over-benevolent rainfall might dampen the overall kharif prospects.

The early sown crops of cotton, pulses, oilseeds and coarse cereals, which are now almost ready for cutting, may get adversely affected due to the continuing wet weather. Harvesting is not possible in slushy fields. The produce runs the risk of quality deterioration due to high humidity in case of undue delay in harvesting.

Uncertainty has already been caused about the fate of bajra crop in Rajasthan and some parts of Gujarat due to the unabated wet spell. The crop has already matured in some parts and can, therefore, get damaged if the rains do not abate.
 

ENCOURAGING NUMBERS
Crop	2009-10	2010-11 (1st advance estimates)	Growth (in %)
Rice	75.91	80.41	5.93
Jowar	2.82	3.22	14.18
Maize	12.00	14.06	17.17
Coarse cereals	23.63	28.23	19.47
Cereals	99.54	108.64	9.14
Tur	2.55	3.27	28.24
Urad	0.85	1.08	27.06
Moong	0.44	0.88	100.00
Total pulses	4.30	6.00	39.53
Total foodgrains	103.84	114.63	10.39
Groundnut	3.66	5.64	54.10
Castorseed	0.99	0.95	-4.04
Sesamum	0.66	0.62	-6.06
Soybean	10.05	9.81	-2.39
Total nine oilseeds	15.66	17.27	10.28
Sugarcane	277.75	324.91	16.98
Cotton*	23.94	33.50	39.93
Jute & mesta*	11.29	10.28	-8.95
(Figures in million tonnes; * million bales)

Excessive rainfall is also reported to have hurt the standing crops of oilseeds like sesame and groundnut in the country’s vegetable oil bowl of Saurashtra in Gujarat. Though a precise assessment of crop loss is yet to take place, it is feared to be over 25 per cent in sesame and 10 to 15 per cent in groundnut in some pockets.

However, the production loss is deemed to be only marginal so far.

The Indian Council of Agricultural Research has advised the farmers to drain out stagnant water from the submerged fields and undertake hoeing operation to remove weeds. Where the crop plants have been damaged to excess rains, addition of 30 kg nitrogen per hectare has been recommended to revive them.