Senior BJP leaders are uneasy about their inability to get a high profile Jat leader who could transform the Jats' closeness to the party into votes.
A senior party leader said ad hocism and short-sightedness on the part of the central leadership was responsible for the lack of a policy that could link the Jats to the party in a political way. He claimed that by and large, the Jats were supporters of the BJP.
The party pins its hope on Nathuram Mirdha's son in Rajasthan, after having ignored the Jat community in the state for a long time. In Haryana, the BJP is still tied to Chief Minister Bansi Lal's apron strings whereas in Uttar Pradesh, it has failed to reverse the United Front's takeover of the Jat votes.
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At one point of time, Mirdha himself wanted to join the BJP but the party's Rajput leadership under Chief Minister Bhairon Singh Shekhawat refused to accept him, fearing the Jats' takeover of the party, a senior BJP office-bearer said.
After Mirdha's death, a conscious effort has been made to woo Jat votes by fielding Mirdha's son Bhanu Prakash Mirdha for the byelection to the Nagaur Lok Sabha constituency. The BJP leaders hold that a sympathy wave in favour of Prakash would ensure his victory and the BJP a consolation that it would have at least one member from the famous Mirdha family, which has dominated Rajasthan politics over the decades.
Before Prakash, the BJP tried to befriend the royal Jat family of Bharatpur. The party's Lok Sabha member from this constituency, Divya Singh, is the wife of Vishvendra Singh, who won the Bharatpur Assembly seat on Congress ticket but shifted loyalty to Shekhawat during the recent crisis in Rajasthan government.
Vishvendra Singh had announced that his loyalty to Shekhawat was becuase of personal friendship rather than due to a sudden love of the BJP. It is doubtful whether the royal family would stand behind the BJP in future as the voters are predominantly Jats.
In Haryana, the BJP has failed to enter the rural areas because of the absence of a Jat leader worth the name. Before tying up with Bansi Lal, the party tried to reach an understanding with former deputy Prime Minister Devi Lal's son, Om Prakash Chautala.
Some BJP leaders hold that Chautala, who was at that time a member of the Samata Party, might gradually become an integral part ofthe BJP. After forming government along with Bansi Lal, the BJP has become so weak in Haryana that it does not even decide on who should be its members in Lal's cabinet, a BJP leader said.
The situation is worse in Uttar Pradesh, where in absence of a strong Jat leader, the BJP has been forced to give Ajit singh of the Bhartiya Kisan Kamgar Party (BKKP) a virtual walkover at the Baghpat Lok Sabha by-election.
The party's plight in Western UP is it own doing as it did not make conscious effort to challenge the hegemony of late Prime Minister Charan Singh's legacy that favoured his son Ajit singh in winning every election from Baghpat, a BJP leader from UP said.
This time the BJP's candidate Tripal Dhama, who was the party's MLA in 1991-93, is no match for Singh. In fact, Dhama was given the ticket only after the party's efforts to persuade the JD Rajya Sabha member Som Pal to contest the Lok Sabha election on the BJP's ticket did not fructify, a senior BJP leader pointed out.
Som Pal, who has a good rapport with senior BJP leaders like LK Advani and Murli Manohar Joshi, has been hobnobbing with the party for quite some time. His refusal of the BJP's offer is the result of his fear of losing. Also Ajit Singh is reported to have requested Som Pal to refuse the BJP's ticket.
The party's central leadership also ignored Virsen Saroha, who has the potential of emerging as a strong Jat leader, a BJP office-bearer said, pointing out that the emotive issue of separate statehood for western UP, a plank now advocated by Ajit singh, was first raised by Saroha who even opposed Charan Singh on many issues.
Saroha, however, failed to attract the attention of the leadership which listened more to the party's regional unit president and Rajya Sabha member Ranbir Singh, who has been brought to the Upper House in order to project him as a Jat leader, the BJP leader said. Ranbir Singh could not bring even one strong Jat person in the party, he held, and pointed out that Singh worked along with Som Pal to malign the image of Saroha, who is Som Pal's cousin.
In a constituency of about 11 lakh population the Jats' population is about 3.5 lakhs. There are about three lakh Muslims and an equal number of scheduled castes of which about two lakh are Gujjars.
The BJP's long-term strategy in the Jat region of western UP should be to concentrate on the non-Jat Hindu population, besides trying to create a committed Jat following, the BJP leader held.