Location data, goods moved: More weekly indicators on economy turn positive

Power generation numbers and Delhi emissions, too show economy may be turning the corner

India’s economy shows steady signs of picking after a lockdown to contain the spread of the coronavirus, with many weekly indicators recoding higher numbers than in 2019.

Analysts worldwide look at more current indicators to sense the situation on the ground. A lot of the macroeconomic indicators like gross domestic product (GDP) are released with a lag. Business Standard tracks a set of high-frequency indicators on a weekly basis. This includes emission levels, power generation and traffic congestion in key cities. All the data is as of Sunday, September 27. Google’s mobility data is also included, though it is released with a lag. The latest Google data is as of September 21.

Power generation numbers are around five per cent higher than they were in 2019 during the same period.  It had dropped by almost 30 per cent at the peak of the lockdown which was implemented towards the end of March to contain the Covid-19 pandemic. Numbers have been higher than 2019 for most of September (see chart 1).

Note: Power generation based on reporting day data (million units, seven-day rolling average)

The Indian Railways carried a higher quantity of goods for the seven days ending Sunday, than over the same period last year. The earnings from carrying goods is also higher than last year. Numbers have been consistently higher than 2019 freight data in recent releases. The latest week data shows 15 per cent more goods being carried than before (see chart 2).

Note: For seven days ending Sunday, September, 27 | Source: Indian Railways

Search engine Google’s location data is used to create a picture of visits to various categories of places including workplaces. Workplace visits are around 70 per cent of normal. Some of the other categories have data of an earlier period because of methodology changes under implementation at Google. The amount of time spent at home shows an increasing trend (see chart 3).

Note: Google suspended updates for some categories over methodology improvements currently in progress. Chart shows visits to places by category where available. Latest data is as of September 21, based on location data as processed by the company. The percentage change is compared to a baseline value for the same day of the week,  calculated on a median basis during the 5-week period Jan 3–Feb 6, 2020. The chart shows a seven-day rolling average.

Business Standard tracks emissions of nitrogen dioxide. The gas is released due to industrial activity and from vehicles. The financial capital Mumbai continues to see emissions far below last year. The latest levels are 93 per cent below the same period last year. Delhi shows a different trend. Nitrogen dioxide levels have exceeded 2019 levels. They are now about a fifth higher than in 2019 (see chart 4,5).

Note: Based on average NO2 levels across stations where data available. Entries which say none are marked as zero. Levels are measured in micrograms per cubic metre of air. Chart title refers to decline in seven-day rolling average levels.

Note: Based on average NO2 levels across stations where data available. Entries which say none are marked as zero. Levels are measured in micrograms per cubic metre of air. Chart title refer to decline in seven-day rolling average terms.

Note: Shows change based on weighted averages derived from hourly data. Each week starts on Monday and ends on Sunday.

Traffic data from global location technology firm TomTom International also shows a difference in activity between the two cities. Mumbai traffic is 33 per cent below last year’s numbers. New Delhi traffic is now only 27 per cent below that in 2019. Both cities have been showing an improving trend in recent times (see chart 6).