Maya on UPA board, Left plays hardball

BSP declares support for Congress' choice for President's post, Left to decide stance later.

Although Home Minister Shivraj Patil's name as the UPA candidate for the President's post has been all but cleared by the Congress and most other partners in the ruling alliance, doubts linger about the winnability of the Lingayat from Maharashtra.

The naysayers include the Left parties, who feel the UPA needs to field a strong candidate to take on Bhairon Singh Shekhawat.

Leaders of the four Left parties today held a 75-minute meeting on the issue. "We will take a final decision on the strategy after consultations with Tamil Nadu Chief Minister M Karunanidhi and other parties in the coalition," said CPI(M) General Secretary Prakash Karat.

Karunandhi was expected to come to New Delhi tomorrow for discussions with Congress President Sonia Gandhi. However, he is known to have postponed the visit. Sources said the DMK could also try to strike a bargain with the the Congress by seeking the post of the vice-president in lieu of support to Patil.

The Left, which had instinctively backed Pranab Mukherjee when his name was circulated, is known to be unhappy with Patil's candidature. Doubts remain, the Congress managers confess.

The Left parties, not exactly ambivalent, are uncertain about Patil's capacity to attract votes, especially as he will in all likelihood contest against Shekhawat.

Even in the vice-presidential elections in 2002, Shekhawat had polled 454 votes against Congress candidate Sushil Kumar Shinde's 305, indicating that at least 10 per cent of Shekhawat's votes should have gone to Shinde.

On the other hand, Shekhawat's camp has been sending signals that his campaign has not been sewn up yet. The BJP is assiduosly wooing two sections that it fears will desert him.

The Shiv Sena, which has 21,590 votes in the electoral college, has already made it clear that it will vote for a Maharashtrian, preferably one in favour of death sentence to Afzal Guru, convicted in the Parliament attack case. The Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) is likely to be caught in a similar dilemma.

The other NDA partner that should have voted for alliance candidate Shekhawat, but is likely to back Patil, is Karnataka Janata Dal (Secular). The JD (S), for local caste reasons, would like to be seen supporting a Lingayat, even if a Marathi-speaking, although it has an electoral alliance with the BJP in the state.

The JD(S) has four MPs and 11,938 votes in the electoral college. Though it has less-than-cordial relations with the BJP and the Congress in the state, it has not joined the so-called Third Front.

Meanwhile, the last 12 hours have seen hectic political activity. Parliamentary Affairs Minister Priyaranjan Dasmunshi and Congress leader Suresh Pachauri met for an intense discussion on risk assessment and to draft letters asking UPA MPs to not go out of town around mid-July, when the presidential election is likely to be held.

Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) chief Mayawati, who held extended consultations with Congress President Sonia Gandhi yesterday, today said the name of the candidate had been finalised. Gandhi would announce the name, which the BSP would support, soon, she added.

The AIADMK and Third Front leader Jayalalitha said the front would make its strategy public on June 18. This grouping controls around 100,000 votes in the electoral college.

But what is worrying the Congress managers more is the link between Patil as choice for president and the Cabinet reshuffle that will follow. At this point, the trade-offs with the vice-presidentship are not being discussed. What is of concern is Foreign Minister Pranab Mukherjee's clear disappointment at not being elevated and the unarticulated question that is hanging in the air: What will he get in the reshuffle if Patil is the UPA candidate?

The managers say they sense resistance to Mukherjee getting home ministership from 10, Janpath. A disappointed Mukherjee has said the home ministry will not be much of a consolation.

Sources in the party say if Mukherjee is being made to do all the hard work to ensure Patil's election, including complicated negotiations with the Left, he should be elevated.

What is worrying the Congress is that Patil's nomination is likely to bring forth as many problems as it will solve. In this, it is the Congress that may end up being politically the most unsettled.