RIC nations unlikely to meet till China border situation normalises

Last week Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov said a meeting would be held later this year

New Delhi is unlikely to participate in a potential meeting of the Russia-India-China (RIC) grouping until the situation at the northern border with China normalises, officials told Business Standard.

Last week, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said during his G20 visit to India that Moscow wants India and China to become friends, and announced that a meeting of the multilateral grouping would be held later this year.

The move is considered a part of Russia’s efforts to counter the Western narrative that the current regime in Moscow is increasingly without diplomatic allies that are willing to be seen with it.

While India has so far not condemned Russia for the invasion of Ukraine, it has repeatedly stressed the need to find a peaceful solution to the crisis through dialogue and diplomacy.

But more than the optics of being seen with Russia, India’s own diplomatic position regarding China is expected to affect the decision on a potential RIC meeting.

“The RIC has not met for some time due to changed realities in India’s own neighbourhood and the wider world. Any decision to have the RIC meeting would have to take these into account. Specifically, the situation at the Chinese border needs to be normalised before the meetings can be held,” an official said.

Last week, External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar met with newly appointed Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang, the first such meeting in eight months, but stressed bilateral relations with Beijing remain “abnormal”.

“The Chinese aggression at the border has affected a range of multilateral efforts involving China and India, not only the RIC. For the level of discussions at RIC to go back to where they were earlier, the continuing military stand-off in Ladakh needs to be resolved first,” another official said.

Long pause

Under the RIC framework, the foreign ministers of the three countries meet periodically to discuss bilateral, regional and international issues of mutual interest.

But the RIC grouping has not met since the war in Ukraine began in February 2022. Leaders of the RIC had last met in person in June 2019. A foreign minister level meeting in November 2021 was the last time the countries met at any level. Held virtually, the 18th meeting of the foreign ministers had noted “the need for regular high level meetings to foster closer cooperation among the RIC countries”.

It had also considered the idea of a Greater Eurasian Partnership involving the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation countries, the Eurasian Economic Union, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations and other interested states and multilateral associations to utilise the potential of the countries and multilateral associations of the region.

But despite the momentum, the trilateral forum was hit by a widening gulf between India and China over the skirmishes along the Ladakh border and the Covid pandemic.

In early May 2020, China had hindered the normal, traditional patrolling pattern of Indian troops in the Galwan Valley area of Eastern Ladakh, which resulted in a face-off. On June 15, Chinese troops clashed with Indian troops at Galwan in Eastern Ladakh resulting in the deaths of 19 Indian soldiers.

Subsequently, Russia had indicated that it would support “constructive dialogue” over the stand-off as it is trusted by both India and China. But its offers of mediation have not been confirmed by India.

Key forum for India

The RIC is a significant multilateral grouping, because it brings together the three largest Eurasian countries that are also incidentally geographically contiguous.

It acted as a platform for the Narendra Modi government to make its initial push for reform and strengthening of multilateral institutions, including the United Nations and World Trade Organization.

The RIC is also considered to be at the core of both the SCO and BRICS initiatives. As a result, it served as a forum to discuss new global financial institutions such as the BRICS bank.

Even though the three nations disagree on a number of security issues in Eurasia, there are areas where their interests converge, such as, on Afghanistan.

It has also served to discuss other issues such as West Asia, climate change, terrorism, regional connectivity, and tensions in the Korean Peninsula.

Stuck in a deadlock

Moscow wants to reiterate its diplomatic pull through an RIC meeting

Lavrov says Moscow wants India and China to become allies

The grouping has not met since the war in Ukraine began in February 2022

In the last foreign minister-level meeting in November 2021, leaders met in person in June 2019

RIC represents the largest geopolitical grouping by area and population