Met cuts monsoon forecast to normal

But kharif crops, reservoir levels will not be hit

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Monday said the monsoon this year would be ‘normal’ at below 100 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA). The 2016 southwest monsoon season formally comes to an end in 10 days.

Officials said the rains could be somewhere around 97-98 per cent of the LPA. The LPA for the full southwest monsoon season is the average rainfall in the country in the past 50 years starting from 1951. This is estimated to be around 889 mm.

Till September 19, the southwest monsoon has been around five per cent below normal. With the daily average expected to go down from here, there is little chance of any sharp improvement.

“The southwest monsoon as of today is around five per cent below normal and we expect some rains over central and coastal India from September 23. This would bring the overall rainfall close to normal, but it won’t be ‘above normal’, as predicted earlier,” Secretary in the Ministry of Earth Sciences M Rajeevan told reporters. He said the rains were expected to remain below 100 per cent of the LPA.

However, this sudden drop in monsoon is not expected to make any tangible impact on the fate of kharif crops and also water levels in the reservoirs as these are at comfortable levels. “The is not expected to have any impact on sowing or health of rabi crops as acreage is above last year’s, while the water levels in the reservoirs is better than last year’s because of good rains in July and August,” IMD Director General K J Ramesh said.

The Met department had in its first forecast for 2016 southwest monsoon season, in April, said rains this year would be ‘above normal’. It had reiterated the same forecast in June, when it released the second forecast. “It seems the La Nina did not turn out as per our expectations,” Ramesh said.

Till the middle of September, sowing of kharif crops was four per cent more than last year, while the area under pulses was almost 30 per cent more than last year.

Water levels in the 91 major reservoirs across the country till mid-September were around 107.67 billion cubic meters, 68 per cent of full capacity. This storage is more than that of last year, while just less than the 10-year average.

The Centre has been betting on a bumper kharif harvest this year on the back of good rains. It said it expects kharif pulses production to be more than eight million tonnes, an all-time high.

In a related development, the IMD has made elaborate plans to improve its agromet services to reach the 6,000 blocks in the country by 2018. Till now it covers just 660 districts.

“We have enlisted the support of post offices, the Election Commission of India and others to use their databases for reaching out to farmers,” Science and Technology Minister Harsh Vardhan said. The ministry plans to develop customised weather forecasts for 300 tourism and pilgrimages across the country, he added.