Met dept predicts normal rains

India's monsoon rains will be normal next month, helping boost the prospects for a bigger harvest of rice, lentils and soybean.

Rains in July, which account for a third of the four-month monsoon showers, will be 95 per cent of their long-term average, M Rajeevan, director of the India Meteorological

Department's National Climate Centre, said. The forecast is good news for the country's 234 million farmers, whose crops suffered due to below-normal rains twice in the past five years, pushing up prices of food staples.

Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's government lost two state elections in February amid anger at food costs, which have risen at almost twice the pace of manufactured goods in the past year.

"Sowing has begun in most states and normal rains should boost crop prospects," said Harish Galipelli, head of research at Karvy Comtrade Ltd. "Inflation has already moderated and a good harvest will help bring down prices further," he added. Abundant rainfall increases incomes among the 700 million Indians who live in rural areas and spurs demand for goods such as motorcycles.

Rainfall since June 1 has been 7 per cent above the average recorded between 1941 and 1990. The country received an average 148.7 millimetres (5.85 inches) of rains between June 1 and 27, compared with the average level of 138.5 millimetres, the weather office said.

The June-September monsoon rainfall will be 93 percent of the long-term average, a level deemed normal, Rajeevan said, reiterating an April 19 forecast by the weather office.

The forecast allows for a margin of error of 4 per cent. Planting of most early winter-harvested crops, including rice, corn, lentils, soybeans, cotton and sugar cane, begins with the onset of the monsoon. The season started four days early on May 28, according to the weather office.