The annual monsoon, crucial to the country’s agriculture-based economy, will be slightly lower this season than in the previous year, the weather office said today in its forecast.
The country is likely to receive “near normal” rainfall in the June-September period, which would be 96 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA), the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said.
The LPA rainfall over the country as a whole for the period 1941-1990 is 89 cm.
However, scientists at the weather office said the LPA forecast, though on the lower side, was not a cause for worry.
“Though the monsoon is on the lower side, there is absolutely no cause for worry,” said Director General of IMD Ajit Tyagi.
The monsoon forecast is in the normal range and there is always a degree of variability, he said, suggesting that the actual rainfall could be higher than predicted.
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The climatic conditions are favourable for good rainfall, Tyagi said, pointing out that the La Nina factor (cooling of the central Pacific Ocean) was near neutral. In 2007, the IMD had forecast 95 per cent rainfall and updated it to 93 per cent in June, but the country received 105 per cent rain than the LPA. The following year, it had forecast 99 per cent rains of the LPA and made an update to 100 per cent, whereas the country received 98 per cent rain.
Monsoon rains are a major influence on output of key crops and economic activity, and also affects sentiment in the country’s financial markets.