Met predicts timely monsoon for MP

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) today predicted timely arrival and normal monsoon in Madhya Pradesh for the year 2006.

"The rainfall is likely to be 90 per cent of the long period average (LPA) with a model error of ± 5 per cent," said DP Dubey, head of the meteorological department, Bhopal.

This augurs well for the soy crop in Madhya Pradesh. Last year, only 21 districts of the state received normal rain, 14 districts had scanty rainfall and 10 recorded excess rainfall. Balaghat recorded 1,700 mm rainfall, while Bhind recorded a minimum rainfall of 501 mm in 2005.

In terms of percentage departures, Katni had recorded a maximum of 92 per cent with 2,016 mm rainfall against the normal rainfall of 1,050 mm.

While Dewas recorded the minimum percentage departures of minus 38 per cent with 610 mm of rainfall against 978 mm during normal rains.

As the state does not have any data centre, soya growers bank on radio and TV reports, and local dailies.

"We had predicted south west monsoon arrival on May 30 but it may take another five days," said Dubey.

IMD adopts a two-stage, long-range forecast strategy for the rainfall. From June to September, it is issued on eight parameters by using power regression and probabilistic models.

In the second stage, update forecast for the seasonal rainfall over the state is issued in July by using the 10-parameter power regression and probabilistic models. The Soyabean Processors Association of India (SOPA) said it was expecting 15 per cent growth in the output due to timely rains.

"The yield is likely to go up to 1,150 kg per hectare from the normal 975 kg per hectare," SOPA chairman said.