The south-west monsoon, a key to the agriculture-driven trillion-dollar Indian economy, is on course and is expected to drench Kerala by Wednesday, thereby bringing much-needed relief to farmers.
“Monsoon is round the corner. Parts of Kerala have been receiving rains since this morning. We may declare the onset of monsoon over Kerala coast by Wednesday," Laxman Singh Rathore, Director General, India Meteorological Department (IMD) said.
Kerala usually receives monsoon showers by June 1, but Rathore said there was no need to paint a gloomy picture as the progress of the seasonal rainfall phenomenon was well with the forecast limits which have a model error of four days. A unique feature of this year's monsoon would be its steady progress along the western coast bring copious rains to coastal Kerala and leaving the peninsular region relatively dry.
Observations show central and northern Kerala receiving rainfall while Thiruvananthapuram getting little rains.
Weather watchers attribute the slight delay in the onset of monsoon to Typhoon Mawar which was active in a western Pacific Ocean off the Philippines and sucking away moisture and wind currents to power itself.
"The typhoon has moved northward towards Japan and will no longer affect the progression of the monsoon," Rathore said. On the effect of El Nino conditions -- warming of the Central Pacific -- on the monsoon, he said it was too early to predict any adverse effect. "At present, El Nino conditions are neutral," he said indicating that it would not have much impact on the monsoon.