Monsoon distribution fairly satisfactory: IMD DG K J Ramesh

The southwest monsoon officially ended last week with a cumulative deficit of 5 per cent, as against the India Meteorological Department’s (IMD’s) prediction of rains being 98 per cent of the long-period average  (with a model error of plus or minus 4 per cent). IMD Director General K J Ramesh tells Sanjeeb Mukherjee in an interview that the Met department hasn’t got its forecast wrong as the rainfall during the season was within the error range. Edited excerpts:
 
How would you read this year’s southwest monsoon performance vis-à-vis the predictions made?
 
To me, the 5 per cent deficiency in rainfall is marginally below normal, but the distribution of rain has been fairly satisfactory. Yes, there was a break in between, but that didn’t cause any big harm as seen from the total kharif acreage, which is 600,000-700,000 hectares less than the record acreage of last year, but more than the 10-year average. The water level in reservoirs, which is another parameter for measuring the rainfall’s performance, has been fairly satisfactory. Till September 28, it was 66 per cent of their full capacity, which was 87 per cent the 10-year average, while during the same period last year, it was around 96 per cent of the 10-year average. Also, there has been late resurgence in the southwest monsoon over several parts in the country which would help in rabi planting, particularly pulses.

 

Are you saying that though, technically, the monsoon season has ended, there is still some rain left?
 
Yes, the active phase of monsoon is continuing, and it will continue to rain in some parts till October 8-10. If the same active phase had happened a week or 10 days earlier, the cumulative shortfall might have been even less.
 
While you say monsoon distribution was fairly normal this year, there are regions like east and west UP, Punjab, Haryana, and even Madhya Pradesh where the rainfall has been over 20 per cent less than normal.
 
Yes, there are parts in north India which have seen less rainfall, and they are agriculturally important as well. But many of them, barring Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra, are well irrigated, so there is no immediate threat to the standing crops. Also, the reservoir level in these states is fairly okay.

 
There are various theories as to why the IMD couldn’t anticipate the big mid-seasonal break in the rains, which caused a lot of hardships to farmers, particularly in Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh. Did you go wrong somewhere?
 
Intra-seasonal variations keep happening in a monsoon season, as this time it was due to an active-cyclonic phase over the Bay of Bengal which pulled the monsoon currents towards it. As much of north and central India get their monsoon rain from the Bay of Bengal, the toughs moved away . During that time, only the Arabian Sea was active. But thereafter, there has been a revival. In fact, the deficiency in rainfall in Kerala, Karnataka, and central Maharashtra has receded considerably since early August.

 
Could’t this have been anticipated?
 
These are transitional systems which can’t be captured in seasonal forecast models, which we give at the start of the June-September monsoon season. Intra-season variabilities in monsoon is a very common phenomenon. But, as I said, the active phase in the southwest monsoon hasn’t completely gone down and there could be some more rain.
 
Is any state preparing to declare drought? What is the situation on the ground in states where monsoon has been deficient?
 
Till last week (this interview was done on September 30), no state had officially declared drought in any part. But, yes, there are some districts in Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Odisha which have been kept under the ‘watch’ list as the overall deficiency is also measured in terms of crop yields and acreage. Nonetheless, drought situation is being closely monitored on a weekly basis.

 
What are the crops that can have the maximum impact of shortfall in rains?
 
Well, as per the first advanced estimate, the production of cotton is projected to be lower, but that is due to lower yields. Let’s wait for another 15-20 days as these are just preliminary figures.