Monsoon going, but you may still get a shower

The monsoon is likely to start withdrawing from extreme western Rajasthan (Jaisalmer region) in the next three to four days. The normal date for the monsoon to recede from this region is September 1.

However, elsewhere the rainy season is not yet over as the meteorologists expect the current subdued monsoon phase to end after five to six days, especially in the peninsular and central India.

The other north-western states, barring Rajasthan, may also get some rain as the monsoon normally starts withdrawing from this region only around mid-September.

The cumulative monsoon rainfall in the whole country so far has been three per cent below normal. Not much rains are expected too, barring the north-east.

According to National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting director Akhilesh Gupta, an anti-cyclone circulation has set in over extreme western Rajasthan, a sure sign of the impending withdrawal of the monsoon from the region in the next three to four days. In any case, the region has had no rainfall for past four weeks.

Gupta added that the monsoon may revive in other parts of the country after five to six days. "This time, the revival is expected to begin from the equatorial side and not from the Bay of Bengal side, as is normal. This would bring rainfall in the peninsular and central India," he said.

Chances of rainfall in the north-western states of Punjab, Haryana and Uttar Pradesh too were not totally ruled out.

"The normal date of withdrawal is September 15 and this area usually gets some showers before the retreat begins," he said.

However, the weather would be mainly dry in this region for next three to four days as no build-up of western disturbance was in sight yet.

Six of the country's total 36 meteorological sub-divisions have received below normal rainfall so far this season. These include western Rajasthan, Bihar, Jharkhand, north-eastern hilly region, coastal Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu.

"Though there are chances of improvement in the situation in the north-east and some southern coastal areas, Rajasthan, Bihar and Jharkhand are unlikely to get more rains this season," Gupta said.

BEATING RETREAT

Monsoon starts withdrawing from extreme western Rajasthan in the next three to four days. The normal date for retreat from this region is September 1

The other north-western states, barring Rajasthan, may also get some rain as the monsoon starts withdrawing from here only in mid-September

Monsoon may revive in other parts of the country after five to six days from the equatorial side and not from the Bay of Bengal side