Monsoon likely to arrive over Kerala on June 1, says Earth Sciences Secy

IMD announcement on May 15; timely onset augurs well for its subsequent progress and movement over mainland, which should aid in timely plantation of kharif crops

India’s southwest monsoon is expected to arrive over the Kerala coast on June 1, its normal onset date, secretary, ministry of earth sciences, M Rajeevan said on Thursday.
 
Though, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) will officially announce the 2021 monsoon onset date on May 15, Rajeevan, in a tweet on Thursday, said that early indications suggest that monsoon will arrive over Kerala on time, that is, around June 1.
 
A timely onset of monsoon over Kerala augurs well for its subsequent progress and mov­e­ment over the mainland. This, in turn, should aid in tim­ely plantation of kharif crops.

 

The IMD, last month, in its first forecast for the 2021 monsoon, said the southwest monsoon, which will start from June, is expected to be ‘normal’ at 98 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA).
 
IMD’s forecast is with a model error of plus and minus 5 per cent. The LPA of monsoon is 88 cm. Rainfall between 96 and 104 per cent of the LPA is considered a normal rainfall.
 
The Met department also said initial forecasts show that, barring eastern and northeastern parts of the country that includes states like Odisha, Bihar, Jharkhand, North-Chhattisgarh, East UP and Assam, rainfall in all other regions of the country is expected to be normal.

 
However, several experts say that ‘below-normal’ rains in East and North-East India is not always harmful as the quantum of rains in these parts, and also the daily average, is higher than other regions of the country.
 
The IMD said, cumulatively, across India, there is 61 per cent chance of monsoon this year being normal to above-normal and 39 per cent chance of being below normal.
 
There is a 14 per cent chance of the rains being deficient, that is, below 90 per cent of the LPA. Earlier, private weather forecasting agency Skymet, too, had predicted a normal monsoon this year.