Monsoon session of Parliament: Last sitting before general elections?

Dark clouds of divisive politics hover over the Monsoon session of Parliament

The penultimate Parliament session -- some speculate it could even be the last if elections were to be advanced -- of the 16th Lok Sabha begins on Wednesday, and portents are of a washout.

The war of words between the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the principal opposition, the Congress, has escalated in the run up to the Monsoon session.

After Congress president Rahul Gandhi met Muslims intellectuals last week, the BJP has taken to calling the Congress a party for the Muslims.

The Congress has said the BJP has raked up the “Hindu versus Muslim” narrative in its attempt to deflect attention away from the innumerable failures of the Narendra Modi government.

This bitter political discourse is likely to spill on to the proceedings of the Monsoon session.

On Monday, Congress president Rahul Gandhi wrote a letter to the Prime Minister to get the Women’s Reservation Bill passed in the Lok Sabha and stand together for women empowerment.

On Tuesday, Law Minister Ravi Shankar Prasad sought Gandhi’s support for a ‘new deal’ that the BJP and Congress can offer to the women of India. He asked Gandhi to get the Congress to support framing of laws to ban practices of ‘triple talaq’ and ‘nikah halala’ among Muslims, and the BJP might support the Women’s Reservation Bill.

Congress women’s wing chief Sushmita Dev said the Law Minister’s letter exposed BJP’s hypocrisy on the issue. She said the BJP’s manifesto for 2014 Lok Sabha elections had promised to deliver Women’s Reservation Bill but had no mention of either ‘triple talaq’ or ‘nikah halala’ laws.

The Monsoon session will have 18 sittings until it ends on August 10, but a repeat of the Budget session, which was marred by frequent disruptions and transacted little work, is expected.

A rapprochement between the treasury benches and the Opposition looks unlikely. Neither side is willing to give an inch with elections to Mizoram and key north Indian states of Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh four months away, with speculation rife that even the Lok Sabha elections could be advanced.

The Congress-led Opposition on Tuesday said it planned to move several no-confidence motions against the Modi government in the Lok Sabha.

The Telugu Desam Party (TDP) was first off the block. On Tuesday, its Lok Sabha MP Srinivas Kesineni gave a notice for a no-confidence motion to be admitted on the first day of the session itself. Other parties, including the Congress, will also give similar notices.

Last week, Speaker Sumitra Mahajan had written to all members to ensure a smooth session. Her conduct during the Budget session didn’t inspire any confidence in the Opposition. On the eve of the Budget session, several Lok Sabha MPs replied to the Speaker’s letter. Content of the letter was yet another reminder of the increasing trust deficit between the ruling BJP and opposition parties.

Opposition MPs pointed out how under Mahajan’s watch crucial Bills have been passed without any meaningful discussions, or deprived of due scrutiny as these were not sent to the standing committees, or were converted as ‘single house Bills’ by way of being certified ‘money Bills’.

The letter from opposition MPs stated that the Speaker didn’t take up their no-confidence motion in the Budget session by pointing out disruptions, but ignored the same disruptions to get the Finance Bill passed without any discussion and debate.

The letter said the government also sneaked in “most unconnected, retrogressive and anti-democratic measures by way of introducing inadmissible amendments to the Finance Bill and pushing them through without the world knowing what was happening in the temple of democracy.” The letter termed it "surreptitious legislation". The Opposition MPs asked the Speaker to direct a similar communication to the Leader of the House, that is the PM, “asking him to put a full stop to subversion of the Rules and the Constitution.”

There were indications from the government that Shiromani Akali Dal’s Naresh Gujral could be fielded as a consensus candidate for the post of the deputy chairman of the Rajya Sabha. However, Congress party’s Ghulam Nabi Azad, the leader of the Opposition in the Rajya Sabha, said the government was yet to reach out to the Opposition with any such proposal.

Is this the last parliament session of the 16th Lok Sabha?

The term of the 16th Lok Sabha ends in May, 2019. But there has been speculation that the government may advance elections to sometime later this year. The reasoning given is that this will be done to arrest the slide in government’s popularity and prevent the opposition from consolidating. The electoral results in Gujarat and Karnataka may weigh on the BJP leadership’s mind too, given that these results showed the limits of the Narendra Modi pull.

The importance of this parliament session will be decided by the answer to this question. If this is the last session of Parliament before elections, then the government may make a vigorous push to fulfill its own legislative agenda before going to polls.

There have been reports that New Delhi has invited US President Donald Trump to be the chief guest at next year’s Republic Day parade. The Modi government is yet to officially confirm that Trump would be visiting India in end January to take part in the parade. But if Trump’s visit is confirmed, it would suggest that government does not plan to advance the Lok Sabha polls.

The Modi government’s legislative agenda

The government has released a list of 18 new Bills that it plans to introduce in the Monsoon session.

It is likely to push for the Bill  to abolish the practice of triple talaq in the Muslim community. This is being billed as a progressive move by the BJP to safeguard the interests of Muslim women.

This may put the opposition in a tight spot as opposing or dithering on this issue will allow the BJP to paint them as partial to Muslim conservatism and supporting the bill may cause them to lose support amongst the Muslim sections. Prime Minister Modi has already made an attack on this line in his speech in Azamgarh.

The government might also try to make political capital out of the Opposition’s refusal in the Rajya Sabha, to support a Bill to give statutory status to a commission for backward classes. Key to BJP’s 2019 strategy is to reach out to most backward castes among the OBCs, or Other Backward Classes. The Lok Sabha has already passed both these Bills.

Apart from this, the two Houses will need to approve key ordinances, and Bills replacing these ordinances introduced for discussion and passage.

The ordinances include -- the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code (Amendment) Ordinance, the Fugitive Economic Offenders Ordinance and an ordinance that enables the creation of commercial divisions in high courts and district courts.

The Criminal Law (Amendment) Ordinance, 2018, which provides for stringent punishment, including the death penalty, for those convicted of raping girls below 12 years, will also need to be approved, and a Bill to this effect set to be introduced. The Fugitive Economic Offenders Bill is pending with the Lok Sabha. It was introduced in the House on March 12.

Changes to the Right to Information Act

The Right to Information (Amendment) Bill, 2018, circulated among the Members of Parliament, seeks to remove the statutory safeguards in place to ensure the independence of information commissioners at the Centre and in the states.

Currently, the salaries and tenures of information commissioners, both at the Centre and in the states, are statutorily protected and at par with those of the Chief Election Commissioner and Election Commissioners at the Centre, and also the election commissioners in the states.

The Congress, Left parties and other opposition parties say they will oppose the Bill. While the government has a majority in the Lok Sabha, the Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance still does not have a simple majority in the Rajya Sabha.

What will the opposition pin the government on?

While the BJP will try to set the agenda by moving a bill to abolish triple talaq, the Congress president, Rahul Gandhi has already made his counter move by writing a letter to the Prime Minister. In his letter, the Congress president asked the PM to stand together on the issue of women empowerment and sought the government’s support in parliament to get Women’s Reservation Bill passed in the Lok Sabha where the BJP has a majority. The bill was passed by Rajya Sabha in March, 2010.

The opposition parties met in Delhi on Monday to decide their floor coordination strategy for the session. They decided to demand that the government start the process to elect the deputy chairman of the Rajya Sabha. 

The Rajya Sabha Secretariat has not notified the election process yet, and at Monday’s opposition meetings fears were expressed that it might be planning to put it in abeyance indefinitely. The parties also decided to field a common candidate for the post of deputy chairman of the Rajya Sabha.

The opposition will try to corner the government on the issues of flight of capital from India, agrarian distress, lack of jobs and increase in deposits by Indians in Swiss banks.

Two alliances - Both still in the works

As elections get closer, the treasury benches and the opposition benches are busy strengthening their flanks. While the BJP leadership has been trying to keep its alliance intact, the opposition is also trying to come to some sort of an understanding across states, even if a grand alliance is not formed.

For the BJP, the states of Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh and Bihar are crucial as far as stitching up firm alliances is concerned. In Maharashtra, an estranged Shiv Sena has created a headache for the BJP leadership. With the next election not looking like a confirmed win for the BJP, even its leadership seems more amenable to meet Shiv Sena half-way, in order to salvage its chances in the state.

In Bihar, Nitish Kumar led Janata Dal (United)’s alliance also seemed to be in trouble at one point but with Rashtriya Janata Dal’s Tejashwi Yadav unwilling to play ball with the JD(U) once again, the BJP looks more confident of keeping the JD(U) within the NDA. The price may be more seats to Nitish Kumar in Bihar in the next elections. BJP chief Amit Shah met Kumar in Patna on Thursday.

With the Samajwadi Party and Bahujan Samaj Party deciding to fight together in UP, and its own alliance partners in the state raising the banner of revolt, BJP will try to keep the alliance going for the next elections.

The opposition may not be ready for a grand national alliance but the Congress will also look to stitch together statewise agreements with different parties.

The monsoon session will see this action behind the scenes and there could be greater clarity about formations by the end of this session.

Will the opposition be allowed to have its say by the chair this time?

The budget session of the parliament saw a washout. Behind the scenes the opposition raised questions about the Speaker’s conduct and accused it of using protests by the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) or YSR Congress Party members to adjourn the house promptly. The situation may continue in this session as well.

The Telugu Desam Party said on Thursday that it will again move a no-confidence motion against the Modi government. It has reached out to other parties to support the motion.

Obviously, there is no danger to the government. The BJP may have suffered successive losses in most of the Lok Sabha bypolls held in the last two years, and its tally of 281 (excluding the Speaker), is down to 273, but it is still above the majority mark.

The Opposition’s only objective in pushing for a no-confidence motion is to pin the government on its failures during the discussion that precedes the voting on such a motion.

Who will be the BJP’s leader in the house in the absence of Jaitley?

Union minister Arun Jaitley is the Leader of House in the Rajya Sabha. He is currently convalescing, and is unlikely to begin his public interactions at least until August 14. BJP chief Amit Shah debuted in the Rajya Sabha in the Monsoon session of 2017, and could be seen marshalling the BJP members even in Jaitley’s presence. It is likely that Shah will reprise that role now as the de-facto Leader of the House.  

Rajya Sabha deputy chairman election

The election for the deputy chairman of the Rajya Sabha is also on the anvil. The Modi government will be without the services of its key troubleshooter Jaitley. It would be interesting to see how Shah reaches out to some of the regional parties to support an NDA candidate for the post.

As things stand, the BJP-led NDA does not have the numbers to reach the halfway mark, even with the support of the AIADMK. The TDP had walked out of the NDA and has joined opposition ranks. In the meeting on Monday, the opposition had decided to field a common candidate. Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) chief Sharad Pawar suggested that three parties among the opposition with most Rajya Sabha members - Congress, Trinamool Congress and Samajwadi Party - should sit together to decide their candidate for the post of deputy chairman, which would be acceptable to all others. Opposition may decide to field Trinamool Congress MP Sukhendu Sekhar Roy, while there is speculation that the NDA could field Shiromani Akali Dal’s Naresh Gujral.  The Biju Janata Dal, which has nine Rajya Sabha members, could swing the contest in favour of whichever side it supports.

Outside Parliament, farmer groups and trade unions plan to hold protests against the policies of the government. On August 9, the anniversary of the Quit India Movement of 1942, several trade unions and farmer organisations will hold protests in New Delhi to highlight agrarian distress and "anti-labour policies of the government".

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