India's seasonal monsoon will be 'below normal' in August and September and could affect farm output in parts of the country, weather scientists said.
"Quantitatively, rainfall for the country as a whole during the period August to September is likely to be 90% of Long Period Average (LPA)," the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said today in its outlook for the second half of the monsoon session.
The annual rain season began on a good note with June receiving 111% falls, followed by a slump in July which witnessed 86% rains.
While the weather office sees 46% probability of below normal (86-94% of LPA) rainfall in the next two months, the probability of deficient rains (less than 85% of LPA) is 27%.
The country has received 95% rainfall of the LPA in June-July.
Weather scientists said that the model error of 8% for August-September forecast would mean that some areas may get 98% rain while it may be 82% in other places.
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There are chances of farm productivity being affected in regions getting less rainfall, they said.
Earlier this year, the IMD had issued regional monsoon forecasts -- 3% below normal in northwest India, 5% below normal in central India and 6% below normal in the southern peninsular region.
However, the IMD said, the seasonal rainfall over northeast India is likely to be less than 87% of the long period average.