India has received below normal rainfall this monsoon and it is likely to be worse for the rest of the season. The eastern part of the country was worst hit with erratic rains so far.
According to the met department, monsoon is below normal when it is between 90 per cent and 96 per cent of the 50-year average of 89 centimetres. The forecast has a model error of plus or minus eight per cent.
The met office said the country has received 95 per cent rainfall during June-July, and is slightly below normal. In June, IMD had lowered its overall monsoon forecast for the season from 98 per cent to 95 per cent.
| RAIN ROSTER | |||
| Regions | Actual rain* | Normal rain* | % Departure** |
| Northwest India | 261.7 | 258.0 | 01 |
| Central India | 451.2 | 444.0 | 02 |
| South peninsula | 340.2 | 350.5 | -03 |
| East & northeast | 626.8 | 736.0 | -15 |
| Country as a whole | 399.1 | 415.0 | 04 |
| *In millimetres, ** Departure from normal rain Source: India Metereological Department | |||
The earlier forecast was lowered as La Nina, which typically causes a dry period, was expected to go down but had evened out during the period. However, weather conditions have now hinted that La Nina will continue to dominate the remaining period of the southwest monsoon.
Rainfall over northwest India, south peninsula and central India is likely to remain within the earlier forecast, but for east India, including West Bengal, Bihar, Jharkhand, Assam and Arunachal Pradesh it would be less than the earlier forecast.
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In June, the IMD had said that eastern India will receive 95 per cent rainfall. However, till July-end it was just at 84 per cent. “The seasonal rainfall over northeast India is likely to be less than the lower limit of the forecast made in June,” the met office said.
For northwest India, including major rice-wheat growing states like Punjab, Haryana and western Uttar Pradesh, the met office had predicted 97 per cent rainfall, while central India that comprises regions where pulses and oilseeds are grown like Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra and Gujarat, will receive 95 per cent rainfall.
In South India, monsoon was expected to be below normal at 94 per cent.