Given the irreconciliable differences between him and BSP leaders Kanshi Ram and Mayawati, Yadav sees little hope of taking over as Chief Minister of a non-BJP government even though his party has the highest number of seats among the non-BJP parties. The calculation is clearly to force the two parties representing mutually antagonistic social forces into a straitjacket, and reap political benefits out of the inherent contradictions.
Two pointers to such a gameplan in the last 24 hours are significant: the election of the leader of the Samajwadi legislature party has been put off in Lucknow; and, Yadav telling his MLAs to be prepared for a period of political turmoil in the next six months. Be prepared to go to jail, he has told them, hoping to be in a more advantageous position in the near future to take over as Chief Minister. In the event of the BJP and BSP joining hands, Yadav can be formally elected leader of his legislature party, which would make him the leader of the opposition.
That the SP is loathe to extend support to the Mayawati-led Congress-BSP alliance was made clear by senior SP leader Beni Prasad Verma yesterday. According to him, only Mulayam Singh Yadav had the right to take over as Chief Minister, and all non-BJP leaders should agree to it. Recent election results, he said, were almost the same as those in 1993 when Yadav had taken over as Chief Minister, but had been later toppled by the BSP.
At that time the non-BJP leaders did injustice to Yadav. This time his government should be restored since it is the same kind of mandate as in 1993. It is the duty of all to see that Yadav is reinstated as Chief Minister of a non-BJP government. But for Yadav, this time the BJP could not have been prevented from securing a majority, Verma stated.
Given the impossibility of the Congress-BSP alliance agreeing to Yadavs candidature, it is clear that he is upping the ante so that the BSP is forced to dump the Congress and walk over to the BJP camp. Knowing fully well that the BSP would have to turn to the BJP, Yadav has been insisting that the BSP give an undertaking to the Governor that it would not support the BJP. In the given fractured mandate, Yadav sees more mileage in remaining at the Centre as a Union minister or as a leader of the opposition. In any case, the Front has been assured by Congress president Sitaram Kesari that developments in Lucknow need not lead to withdrawal of support at the Centre.
SP sources say Yadav would prefer to go to Lucknow and combat a possible BSP and BJP alliance as leader of the opposition. They admit that this could lead to considerable turmoil at the grassroots level, but feel in the long run Yadav and the SP would stand to gain by the BJP and BSP joining hands. Both BJP and the BSP would lose a considerable portion of their support bases by joining hands, SP leaders feel. Clearly, in Lucknow-centric activities, Yadavs line would be the United Fronts line. CPI (M) leader Harkishen Singh Surjeet, who is also a member of the Fronts three-member committee formed to negotiate with the Congress-BSP alliance, is firmly behind Yadav, and there is little possibility of any decision being thrust upon him by the Fronts steering committee. Yadav arrived here from Lucknow last evening.
A clearer picture is likely to emerge today after the meeting of the steering committee. Incidentally, it would be the first time that a full committee would meet after the formation of the United Front government at the Centre. All chief ministers are expected to be in town to attend the meeting of the Inter-State Council.