NCAER pegs growth at 8% for 2003-04

2002-03
Base

2003-04
New forecast

Real GDP4.347.98 Agriculture-3.2310.70 Industry5.337.05 Service8.108.31 Exports19.1810.46 Imports19.2020.25 Inflation3.294.90 Fiscal deficit*5.905.82

* as percent of GDP at market prices (1993-94 base)

 Exports are expected to grow about 6 per cent in rupee terms and 10.5 per cent in dollar terms, despite the strengthening rupee. It has assumed a nominal appreciation of 4 per cent against the dollar in 2003-04.  Imports are projected to grow 15 per cent in rupee terms and over 20 per cent in dollar terms, implying a trade deficit of about 2 per cent. The current account deficit will remain marginally positive, the NCAER says.  The previous forecast, made in October 2003, was based on a normal monsoon and an uncertain global economic situation. The revised assumptions for the growth forecast take into account the bumper crop yield in agriculture. The revision in the GDP forecast comes after the economy logged a whopping 8.4 per cent growth in the second quarter and 7.0 per cent in the first half of this financial year.  NCAER