NDA motion unlikely to dent Laloo's base

The no-confidence motion against the Rabri government in Bihar to be tabled by the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) tomorrow is certain to fall through and will only strengthen Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) chief Laloo Prasad Yadav's position to take advantage of caste cleavages in the state politics.

The sacking of Director-General of Police DP Ojha has already taken a casteist angle in the state. Yadav was quick to brand Ojha as a sympathiser of the outlawed "Ranveer Sena"""a private army of upper caste Bhumihars in the state.

Since Ojha belongs to this caste, the message seems to have gone down well among social groups, which form Yadav's support base. Yadav has again used the controversy to address to his formidable OBC-Muslim support base and consolidate his position.

Yadav announced today that he would hold a maharalla (huge rally) in response to all the legislative action against him by the Opposition. This is apparently to touch base with his sympathisers.

"We command full majority in the House. We are least bothered about the no-confidence motion, which is bound to be defeated," Yadav said in Patna before leaving for Ranchi to address a party rally.

The Opposition should have brought the no-confidence motion earlier, he said claiming support of the Congress and Independents sharing power with the RJD in Bihar.

He also ridiculed Ojha's warning that his life was under threat, adding the ousted police chief had "lost his mental balance."

The murder of Satyendra Dubey, an engineer working with the National Highways Authority of India in Gaya, could not be taken up as an effective issue to mobilise the fractured Opposition in the state.

There are contradictions within the NDA comprising the BJP, the Samata Party-JD(U) combine, which led a Bihar minister to comment that the legislative move was just the response of a "debating society".

"The Bhumihars are with us (the NDA). The Yadavs and the Muslims are with Laloo. In between, it looked as if the Muslims were confused. But after the Gujarat riots they will go with Laloo. So there is no political confusion. Everything is as before," he said.

Given the current churning in the BJP about cranking the party up for the Mission 2004 (Lok Sabha elections), there is a view that the leader of the BJP in the state and the leader of the legislature party should be changed to present a more OBC-friendly face.