Need 100 mn jobs in next 10 yrs to gain from demographic dividend: Experts

Tertiary sector is not going to generate most of these 100 million jobs; focus should be on manufacturing and formal sector

The country needs 100 million jobs in the formal sector in the next ten years to take advantage of its demographic dividend and it should get into the global supply chain to generate many of those by negotiating trade deals effectively, industry players and experts have emphasised.

"We need something like 100 million jobs in the next 10 years which means that the non-agriculture sector has to generate 14 per cent job growth every year," said Aditya Ghosh, co-founder of Akasa Airlines, at the Global Economic Policy Summit organised by the Confederation of Indian Industry.

Even as he comes from the services sector, Ghosh said the tertiary sector is not going to be the one which is going to generate most of these 100 million jobs. "Manufacturing and formal sector has to be a big focus area for job generation," he suggested.  

He pointed out that 50 per cent of the formal salaried class had to move to the self-employed or casual labour due to Covid. To bring them back to the formal sector is a massive challenge, he said.

Ghosh said Covid has done a weird thing -- while it has impacted the entire world in a secular manner, countries have started erecting walls, protectionism started in a big way.  

"We can't create 100 million jobs ourselves. The challenge is how do we use our talent as an export commodity to geographies, industries, sectors where there is a shortage," the former president of Indigo said.

He said the irony is that India is going to face a shortage of 4-5 million technology and digital jobs in the next 18 months and the challenge is how to  address the issue of lack of resources in skill-oriented industries.    

Tata Chemicals CEO and managing director R  Mukundan said,"Most people see jobs growth as devoid of our trade policy, but I think these are inter-linked."

He said India needs to be linked to the global supply chain which will create a lot more employment.

"We seem to have this perennial fear that the Indian industry would be completely crushed by opening up. We have seen exactly the reverse of this in the last period of liberalisation. May be some of the free trade agreements (FTAs) were not rightly structured, but we must go aggressively in inking them. We need to get access for our service providers in global markets while we negotiate the trade deals," he said.  

Rana Hasan, regional economic advisor, south Asia at Asian Development Bank, said the issue of protectionism and automation as a deterrent for job generation are over-stated.

He said if India doubles its share of global trade from the current 1.7 per cent, it would see huge expansion in volumes and quality of jobs even if the world trade declines. Besides, zero worker factories that are being talked about are still 10-15 years away, Hasan said.

He talked about the importance of well-managed cities and formal industries to generate jobs and reduce the gender gaps in wages.

Puneet Chhatwal, managing director CEO, The Indian Hotels, said there are huge opportunities to not only create jobs in the tourism sector but to position the sector globally.

Preetha Reddy, executive vice chairperson, Apollo Hospitals, said with BYJU'S like companies in India, e-learning should be tapped to strategise skill training to generate employment in the health sector.