Nepal PM arrives on a 5-day working visit today

The issue of revising the extradition and legal assistance treaty between India and Nepal is likely to be on the agenda of Nepal Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba when he begins a working visit to India from September 8, the first visit to any foreign country since he was re-appointed to prime ministership by King Gyanendra in June.

Deuba's visit comes amid an alert to all airports operating flights to and from Nepal following intelligence information about possible attempts by Maoist rebels to hijack an Indian aircraft, official sources in the Home Ministry said.

The inputs for the alert was received by the Central Industrial Security Force that mans airports in India. It had conveyed the intelligence input to various airlines operating in the India-Nepal circuit, they added.

The hijack alert is only one of the problems Deuba will leave behind in Nepal.

The demonstration of force by the Maoists by their blockade of Kathmandu last week, thus illustrating the powerlessness of the authority of both King Gyanendra and Deuba's own government, the residue of the anti-Muslim feelings following the execution of 12 Nepalis in Iraq, shaky economic conditions in the Himalayan kingdom following attacks by Maoists on Indian business and the continuing threat to the stability of his own government following a call for an agitation by senior Nepali Congress leader GP Koirala are some of the others.

Deuba will be in Delhi for as many as five days and will meet a large number of people including former Prime Ministers Chandrashekhar and IK Gujaral, Leader of the Opposition LK Advani, UPA leader Sonia Gandhi besides calling on the President, the Prime Minister, Water Resources Minister Priyaranjan Dasmunshi, Home Minister Shivraj Patil, Defence Minister Pranab Mukherjee and Commerce and Industries Minister Kamal Nath.

A business delegation is also accompanying Deuba.

Although India is keen that the extradition and mutual legal assistance treaties between the two countries that date back to 1953 be revised, it seems unlikely that this will happen in a hurry. The 1953 treaty does not have any provisions for extraditing nationals of third countries to India or Nepal. Nor does it have any provisions for extraditing persons for "financial or terrorist" crimes.

That this has implications for India's security is obvious. During the hijack of IC-814 from Kathmandu, the complicity of the Pakistanis in the act of terrorism was not in doubt. Yet, even if Nepalese authorities had apprehended those responsible for the action, India could not have insisted on their extradition because there was no legal framework for doing so.

On the other hand, Nepal allege that India has repeatedly violated the treaty by taking advantage of an open border and sending police forces into Nepal to pursue criminals, something that has undermined Nepal's sovereignty. Perceptions of each others' security interests differ radically.

The problem in revising the treaty is that it will entail an amendment to the Constitution, which requires a two-thirds majority in Parliament that Deuba's faction of the Nepali Congress alone does not have.

Among the other issues likely to be discussed as water-sharing agreements, another exceedingly politically sensitive matter.

In the 1990s, the Nepali Congress lost a number of elections in eastern Nepal because of the controversial Tanakpur treaty, which allegedly sold out Nepali watersharing interests. With the Kosi and the Gandak repeatedly flooding Bihar and Nepal being unable to harness the rivers, India too has a political stake in river water management.

Deuba's biggest problem relates to being able stay in saddle long enough to resolve all these problems. He is likely to tell India that he needs New Delhi to underwrite his tenure and curtail politicking by rival GP Koirala who has launched an agitation against his government.

He is also likely to seek India's help in facilitating secret talks with Maoists either in the Andmans, or Male or even Mauritius to reach a pact with a view to eventually coopting them in the political system.