New pandemic package to raise fiscal deficit by 60 bps, says report

The package can offer an additional liquidity window of Rs 70,000 crore to banks: report

The latest credit push for the pandemic-hit sectors and other relief supports will have an additional 60 bps impact on the fiscal deficit, and can offer an additional liquidity window of Rs 70,000 crore to banks, says a report.

Finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Monday announced Rs 1.5 lakh-crore of additional credit for small businesses, more funds for the healthcare sector, loans to tourism agencies and guides, and waiver of visa fees as part of a credit-led package to support the pandemic-hit economy.

The package, mostly made up of government guarantees to banks and microfinance institutions for loans they extend to the pandemic-hit sectors, totals up to Rs 6.29 lakh crore together with the previous such packages.

Assuming equal distribution of the new announcement of Rs 1.10 lakh crore, with 50 per cent and 75 per cent guarantee cover and a risk weight of 100 per cent, banks may have a capital relief of around Rs 7,500 crore that can further generate credit of around Rs 70,000 crore, according to an SBI Research analysis.

The fiscal impact of latest announcements and earlier is not linear as a substantial portion of the package is contingent liabilities. Ignoring these, the immediate impact will be slightly over Rs 1.23 lakh crore which will be around 0.6 per cent of the GDP, SBI chief economist Soumya Kanti Ghosh said in the report.

Monday's announcement broadly emphasises four sectors health, tourism, MFIs and agriculture. The other measures announced fine-tune the scope of the already existing arrangements, he said.

Under the credit guarantee schemes to further the flow of credit to the weaker sections of the society, guarantees will be provided to banks for loans to new or existing NBFC-MFIs or MFIs for lending up to Rs 1.25 lakh to around 25 lakh small borrowers. Interest rate on such loans will be capped at MCLR plus 2 per cent.

Though most of the latest announcements are part/extension of the past packages, overall, this is a timely relief to the sectors/segments that were impacted most by the second wave of the pandemic.

The Rs 50,000-crore guarantee cover package to boost the medical infrastructure in underserved areas across the 124 aspirational districts, can lead to the overall improvement in human development, the report said.

At present, as per MSME website, 124 districts are recognised as aspirational districts. Maximum loan size under the scheme is kept at Rs 100 crore with interest rate cap of 7.95 per cent and guarantee duration of three years.