Former prime minister Atal Behari Vajpayees statement that the BJP may move a no-confidence motion against the United Front government during the budget session is being taken in BJP circles as a signal that the party leadership wants the Gowda government to continue for at least another six months.
A no-confidence motion is normally not taken up against the same government twice in the same session. Therefore, if Gowdas government survives this motion, it could face another no confidence motion only in the monsoon session, in July-August.
At a time when the UF government looks unstable owing to its problems with Congress president Sitaram Kesari, the BJPs bringing a no-confidence motion could end up embarassing the Congress, since its bluff would be called if it were to vote in support of Gowdas government.
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At least some BJP leaders calculate that, given the current mood among parties opposed to the BJP, it does not appear likely that the government would fall, he held.
Some senior BJP leaders say that an early Lok Sabha election would not be in the BJPs interests, since it is trying to streamline its organisation and sort out internecine problems. The BJP would prefer elections some time early next year and hence would like the UF government to last for a good part of this year, a senior BJP leader held.
The BJP leader said that the general mood in the BJP disfavoured instability at the Centre as the party is not prepared to face parliamentary elections.
Our cadre is tired with continuous electioneering in the country and we need rest to prepare the partys rank and file for another national election, he said. The BJP has to devote some time to organisational work in order to infuse new confidence among its cadre. The decision taken at Virar have yet to be implemented, he pointed out.